Vietnam builds a model to forecast storms 3 days early

Dynamic models measure the development and movement of tropical cyclones in the East Sea to help provide early warning of storms and tropical depressions.

On the morning of November 6, at a conference to summarize the key national science and technology program “Scientific and technological research for sea and island management and marine economic development” (KC.09 phase period 2016-2020), the Program Management Board has stated many results after 5 years of implementation. The whole program has 41 research tasks implemented.

The topic “Forecasting the formation, development, and movement of tropical cyclones in the East Sea and its effects on waves and weather in marine areas of Vietnam within 3 days” by Prof. Dr. Tran Tan Tien, University of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, the project leader is one of the typical tasks. From this study, scientists have built predictive models, he said. Dynamic model 4 technology predicts the number and activity area of ​​storms, weather and waves in the East Sea and coastal areas, as a basis for early warning of waves, hydrometeorology, used as forecasting Independent reporting and distribution of natural disasters.

This model is more detailed than existing forecasts, from orbit, intensity and weather forecast… The team also built equations to predict maximum temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation at 15 gas stations. seaside statue. “The model operates stably on the basis of correct management of forecasting the formation and development direction of tropical cyclones to give correct and early warnings to mitigate natural disasters,” Prof. Tien said.

Applying the model into practice, the research team installed and tested it at four hydrometeorological forecasting centers for the 2020 storm season, making forecasts for 4 storms and tropical depressions. The results show that the predicted depressions are mostly earlier than they actually are. According to GS Tien, reducing errors in forecasts also helps bring forecasting technology closer to technology in the region, serving actual weather and wave forecasting.

Location and forecast of Con Son storm on September 10.  Graphics: NCHMF.

Location and forecast of Con Son storm on September 10. Graphics:NCHMF.

In the task of research, development, application of advanced technologies to create a chain of high-value products from seafood resources, led by Dr. Tran Quoc Toan, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, has offers technology to take advantage of raw materials from oyster shells and intestines into products that are applied in anti-inflammatory treatment, psoriasis or calcium nanopowder, pharmaceutical additives.

After 5 years of implementation, the tasks of the KC.09 program focus on researching and finding solutions to rationally use resources for marine economic development; environmental resources, natural disaster prevention and mitigation, and ensuring security, order and population stability for sustainable socio-economic development on Vietnamese islands. According to the program report, 36 tasks have been accepted, 4 other projects have not been accepted due to the epidemic and one project has been stopped.

Prof. Dr. Pham Hoang Hai, program manager, said that the scientific standard was high, of which there were 163 domestic articles and 76 international articles. He also emphasized that the program for the first time has the topic of autonomous research on the deep sea, helping to find promising areas for mineral resources, serving the exploitation and rational use of marine resources…

The program proposes effective solutions for exploitation and use, restoration of marine resources and resources, development of spatial planning models for coastal zones and offshore waters and islands; applying advanced technologies in forecasting, warning and minimizing damage caused by natural disasters and climate change in service of sustainable development of the marine economy and environmental protection.

According to Prof. Hai, many KC.09 projects also study issues related to the development of the law of the sea and use of the sea, thereby building a legal document to serve the struggle to protect Vietnam’s sovereignty over seas and islands. The research has collected, systematized information and documents to serve the completion of the marine legal policy system, scientific basis and practice.

Mr. Le Quang Thanh, Director of the Department of Social Sciences, Humanities and Nature (Ministry of Science and Technology) assessed that KC.09 is a program with a continuum, spanning the past 45 years, each period has its own set of challenges. own task. In the new phase, with the program restructuring project, he emphasized on sustainable development of the marine economy, building a legal basis for the fight to protect sovereignty over seas and islands, rational exploitation of natural resources. biodiversity conservation, applying science and technology in research and forecasting of natural disasters, and climate change response.

Deputy Minister of Science and Technology Tran Van Tung assessed that KC.09 has created many products with high application value, commercialized, and practical application of technology models. The results from the topics contribute to solving many urgent problems, including the exploitation and use of marine resources, environmental protection, disaster prevention, and national defense and security assurance. “Forecast application results are very important, making policy recommendations is a voice to help in management, direction and administration,” he said.

Some contents of models, technologies and exploitation, aquaculture and processing of biological resources, works to prevent coastal erosion, the Deputy Minister wishes to be further promoted. Scientists also have to calculate the economic efficiency from the application of technologies, models and products, which will then attract and coordinate with application enterprises.

Emphasizing the importance of marine research, the Deputy Minister said that the Ministry is committed to paying attention and investing, restructuring the program framework, building a vision strategy on the basis of an overall review of the fields. , sector, locality.

Nhu Quynh

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