Should investors exit in 2022 or wait until 2023?
Assessing the real estate market in 2022, Mr. Cao Minh Thanh, General Director of MLAND Pro said that this is still a good year when the market is still growing. 2022 is the year real estate prices increase but the supply is low.
However, according to Mr. Thanh, 2022 is the year when investors should promote sales and exit or until the first half of 2023. Because after that, the market will tend to go down, real estate prices will decrease.
“The longest cycle of real estate is 5 years and a good cycle is only about 5-7 years. But from 2013 to now, we have had 9 years of bull market. So, I predict By 2023, the real estate market will gradually become difficult,” said Mr. Thanh.
When is the golden time to exit? (Illustrated image)
Besides, Mr. Thanh pointed out two other reasons that may affect the real estate market. The first is the macroeconomic management tools to limit the cash flow into real estate after a period of strong growth thanks to the economic support package, the promotion of infrastructure investment, etc. squeeze capital into real estate, the market becomes hungry for capital. Second, when Covid-19 is under control, cash flow will spread evenly across all manufacturing industries. Money into the real estate sector also becomes limited.
According to Mr. Thanh, professional investors can judge the situation. They know how to get in and out of the line smoothly. If the exit is slow, the investor will have to accept a stop loss. Although in recent times, real estate prices have increased, but investors still see the profitability of this investment channel. Therefore, despite the risk, many investors still accept it.
Phuong Ngo, leader of a real estate business in Da Nang, also said that from 2021 to the end of 2022, the State still has to provide money to support the fight against the epidemic and the source of money in circulation is still increasing.
In the period from 2022 to 2023, when the vaccination program is almost completed, the State and banks will have economic stimulus plans to support businesses to resume production and operations. With easier lending and lower interest rates, it is expected that at this time, the real estate market will have transactions again with a large amount of money from the anti-epidemic and economic stimulus process. This is the best time for investors who still hold real estate to exit.
The period from 2024 to 2025 is a period of stable production recovery, also when inflation is high, leading banks to absorb cash flow by cutting economic stimulus packages and raising interest rates. This is the darkest time of the real estate market. The market will fall deeply when banks raise interest rates.
In a recent real estate forum, Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong, Member of the Finance and Budget Committee of the National Assembly, Vice Rector of the National Economics University, said that when the real estate market goes down, it will go up. The past periods have proved that every 4-5 years is a growth cycle of the real estate market. Therefore, looking at the prospects of the real estate market, we need to look at the long-term outlook within the next 3-5 years, which is relatively stable and developed.
at Blogtuan.info – Source: cafebiz.vn – Read the original article here
