The SBV will continue to ease monetary policy despite inflationary pressure
The analyst team expects the SBV to maintain an loosening monetary policy until at least the end of the second quarter of 2022 because (1) Although inflationary pressure is expected to increase in the coming months, the consumer price index The average consumption in the first two months of the year is still significantly lower than 4%, (2) domestic demand is still relatively weak, has not fully recovered to pre-pandemic normal, (3) the State Bank still prioritizes The goal is to maintain low lending rates to support businesses and the economy to recover after the pandemic.
Although we do not believe that the SBV will further cut its key policy interest rates, we also believe that the SBV will not raise this interest rate in the first 6 months of this year, in order to support the recovery of the economy. .
VnDirect forecasts that the State Bank will support the market through activities such as injecting liquidity in dong, buying foreign exchange or raising the ceiling on credit growth for commercial banks. Accordingly, credit growth will reach 14% in 2022.
Regarding deposit interest rates, the analysis team believes that it is difficult to maintain at historic low levels in 2022 due to the following reasons (1) higher capital mobilization demand when credit accelerates, (2) pressure inflation in Vietnam will increase in 2022, (3) fiercer competition with other investment channels such as real estate and securities to attract capital flows.
As of March 2, 2022, the 3-month term and 12-month term deposit interest rates of State-owned joint stock commercial banks remained unchanged compared to the level at the end of 2021; while 3-month and 12-month term deposits of private joint stock commercial banks increased by 0.07 percentage points and 0.13 percentage points respectively compared to the end of 2021.
The analyst team forecasts that the deposit interest rate will increase slightly by 0.3 – 0.5 percentage points in 2022. Accordingly, the 12-month deposit interest rate of commercial banks may increase to 5.9. -6.1%/year at the end of 2022, but still lower than the pre-pandemic level of 7.0%/year.
Regarding lending interest rates, the State Bank is implementing an interest rate compensation package with a scale of VND 3,000 billion. This package offers a loan interest rate of only 3-4%/year for businesses strongly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the Government plans to expand the scale of the package to provide interest compensation for businesses to VND 40,000 billion, focusing on a number of priority subjects, including (1) small and medium enterprises, (2) small and medium enterprises. participating in a number of national key projects, and (3) doing business in certain industries (tourism, aviation, transportation).
VnDirect expects that the interest rate compensation package can help reduce the average lending interest rate by 0.2 – 0.4 percentage points in 2022. However, the actual impact of the interest rate compensation package on Businesses and the economy may be lower if commercial banks increase lending rates on other conventional loans to offset the increase in deposit rates.
at Blogtuan.info – Source: cafebiz.vn – Read the original article here
