Latest Power Plan 8: Reduce tens of thousands of MW of coal power

According to the content 8 . electricity planning According to the latest forecast submitted by the Ministry of Industry and Trade to the Government, the maximum capacity (Pmax) in 2025 will reach about 59,300-61,400 MW; around 86,500-93,300 MW by 2030; in 2045 about 155,000-189,900 MW.

On that basis, the Ministry of Industry and Trade proposes to choose the planning option for the total power capacity of about 146,000 MW by 2030 and about 343,000 MW by 2045 (excluding the existing rooftop solar power source of about 7,755 MW and power sources for separate loads are about 2,700 MW in 2030 and 4,500 MW in 2045).

Nuclear power has not yet been taken into account.

Compared to the Report dated March 26, 2021, the total power capacity by 2030 is about 23,800 MW lower, in which there are some major changes as follows: Gas thermal power LNG down 17,800 MW; Coal-fired thermal power will be reduced by nearly 6,000 MW, Expanding the schedule after 2030 for concentrated solar power of about 5,550 MW; Biomass electricity and other renewable energy decreased by 1,500 MW; Hydroelectricity increased by 5,324 MW; Offshore wind power increased by 4,000 MW; Hydroelectricity, storage increased by 1,500 MW…

Coal power by 2030 in this new option will be reduced by 6,000MW due to its removal from the master plan of coal-fired power projects: Quynh Lap 1 (1,200 MW), Quynh Lap 2 (1,200 MW), Vung Ang 3 (1,200 MW), Long Phu 2 (1,320 MW); Not included in the planning of projects: Bao Dai (600 MW), Pha Lai 3 (200 MW)…

Total power capacity by 2045 is about 19,000 MW lower, in which there are some big changes such as: LNG thermal power plant reduced by 38,650 MW; Coal thermal power decreased by nearly 12,000 MW, Solar power decreased by about 9,300 MW; Biomass electricity and other renewable energy decreased by 1,500 MW; Offshore wind power increased by 18,000 MW…

Compare to Power planning 7 adjustable, capacity coal thermal power about 14,800 MW reduction.

In addition, according to the selected option, at least 5 coal-fired power projects with a total capacity of 7,100 MW have been prepared for investment, but it is difficult to arrange capital for implementation. Including coal-fired power projects: Nam Dinh BOT (1,200 MW), Quang Tri BOT (1,200 MW), Vinh Tan 3 powder (1,980 MW), Song Hau 2 BOT (2,120 MW), Cong Thanh (600 MW).

Total investment capital of this option in the period of 2021-2030 is about 127.5 billion USD, in the period 2031-2045 is about 242.3 billion USD. The total period of 2021-2045 is about 369.8 billion USD.

Compared with the plan proposed for approval in Report 1682 in March 2021, the total capital in the 2021-2030 period will decrease by 18.2 billion USD; the period 2031-2045 increased by 10.85 billion USD and the whole period of 2021-2045 decreased by 7.36 billion USD.

At the submission, the Ministry of Industry and Trade also analyzed the issue of nuclear power development.

Accordingly, nuclear power is considered a source of near-clean electricity production, especially after COP26, it has been recognized by some countries as a type of clean electricity production because it does not emit greenhouse gases. With a net emission target of “zero” by 2050, nuclear power development was also included in the review of Power Plan VIII.

Previously, the National Assembly had a policy of stopping nuclear power development, so if nuclear power development is restarted, the drafting unit believes that the Government needs to report to the Politburo/Secretariat for approval. Having concluded, the Resolution directs the continued development of nuclear power as a basis for including nuclear power projects in the Power Master Plan 8.

Luong Bang