Russia-Ukraine tension: The bread in Egypt is at risk of a global food crisis

Bread in Egypt

Bread is an essential food on the tables of people in at least 27 countries around the world. Russia and Ukraine now account for nearly a third of global wheat exports. Most of Ukraine’s exports go to the world via the Black Sea. And the Ukrainian government ordered the closure of seaports in this region. On March 9, Ukraine also announced to stop exporting wheat.

As for Russia, due to Western economic sanctions, the export market will also be severely affected. Customers, either do not dare to buy, or cannot buy.

Russia and Ukraine account for nearly a third of global wheat exports (Image: Reuters)

According to data, Turkey currently imports 80% of wheat from Russia and Ukraine, Egypt imports 85%, Lebanon or Tunisia imports over 80%, Iran over 60%… Notably, these are all agricultural fields. major industry in the Middle East and North Africa. In countries like the Gulf, food is basically entirely imported.

In the market, wheat prices in the Middle East have increased by about 35% since the Russia-Ukraine tensions broke out. Wheat imported from Russia – Ukraine is currently imported for the July 2021 crop, the next crop in July 2022, if the tension persists, the supply will be even more short and the price may go up. This is a concern with social stability.

As in Egypt, this country still maintains a policy of free 5 loaves of bread every day for about two thirds of the population, considering this as one of the most important factors to prevent the risk of social unrest. After the Arab Spring, now stockpiling wheat without certainty is not an easy problem.

Many countries are heavily dependent on wheat from Russia and Ukraine (Artwork – Photo: Paul Keller / Flickr)

Countries are now rushing to find alternative wheat sources. But the most significant supply that can be replaced now is from South America and North America, but the cost will be inflated because of the transportation cost. Countries that have just had to go through the post-pandemic shock, the budgets and pockets of the state, businesses and people are tight.

Even the rich Gulf countries can not help but worry, not only the price of bread has increased, meat, fish, eggs, etc. prices have also escalated, due to the scarcity of cereals for animal feed.

Food prices hit record highs

Not only wheat, but also the price index of a variety of staple foods in February jumped.

According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, almost all food items saw a record price increase in February (the month when the Russia-Ukraine conflict began). The price increases are especially strong for vegetable oils, cereals and dairy products. All the very essential things on the tables of people in many countries around the world.

The price index of a variety of essential foodstuffs in February skyrocketed

Of all the goods, food prices are always the most telling numbers. Gasoline prices go up – we can limit travel, gold prices go up – we can’t invest in gold, but food prices go up, consumers still have to buy, not starve.

The upward pressure on prices can be felt in many countries, even those with high standards of living like Europe.

“The rising real price is having a big impact on our daily spending. What used to cost 10 euros, now has increased to 12 to 13 euros. Prices have increased by about 20%,” said Mr. Javier – Citizen Spain said.

Developing countries in Asia or Africa are the places that face the most difficulties because a large amount of their food supplies come from Russia or Ukraine. In Ghana’s capital, Accra, many food businesses have fallen into disrepair, are heavily indebted or have had to lay off employees because of high input prices.

“Things started to get worse from last June. Not only flour, but also sugar, margarine, all the ingredients needed to make bread, have gone up in price. The increase is month by month, or even even higher. week by week,” said Raphael Borketey, co-founder of Bethel bakery, Ghana.

The world is facing the risk of a food crisis (Image: Reuters)

For the poor in many countries, the situation is made even more dire, as food supplies are now slowly getting out of reach.

“Half of us have had to skip breakfast, and I’m still trying my best to find food for my family. Like an ant on the ground or a fish in the sea, we’ll eat everything we eat. what I can find,” said Ghalib Al Najjar – Yemeni citizen.

According to estimates by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the Russia-Ukraine conflict could cause international food and food prices to rise by 8% to 20%. Experts also warn that disruptions to the agricultural activities of these two key food exporters could increase the number of malnourished people globally by 8 to 13 million between 2022 and 2023.

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