The “price storm” surrounds, which investment channel is attractive?
Inflation grew hot in “price storm” Global commodities make many investors nervous, looking for safe havens, including gold and the US dollar. However, gold and USD prices are “swinging to the top”, unpredictable movements that make investment cash flow move.
Gold, USD is a “storm shelter”?
Due to geopolitical tensions in the world, coupled with a slowing economic recovery due to the uncontrollable COVID-19 epidemic, global commodity prices, from crude oil to metals to food, skyrocketed. . Gold price continuously “dances” from an all-time high of 74.4 million dong/tael 2 weeks ago to around 70 million dong/tael at the moment. The price of the greenback is also showing signs of going up after the US Federal Reserve (FED) has just decided to raise the USD interest rate. In this context, the goal control inflation in many countries, including Vietnam, are facing many challenges.
Commodity prices escalate causing investors to seek safe havens. (Artwork: KT)
Many investors consider gold as a safe haven investment channel in the context of inflation and geopolitical tension. However, it should be noted that in Vietnam, the gold price difference is too large compared to the world price, causing many investors to lose money in recent times. Currently, the world gold price is still higher than the SJC gold price by 14.48 million dong/tael, making the investment in gold of domestic investors become precarious.
Financial experts said that the lack of connection with the world market makes gold a risky investment channel, not favored by many investors. According to Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, a finance-banking expert, at this time, investing in gold must be very cautious.
“Any investment channel has certain risks. Especially, in a time of strong fluctuations in gold prices like just now, there are people who seize the opportunity to realize profits, ie not greedy, cut profits as soon as expectations are met, however, most of them can’t do it because everyone expects the price to go up even more, so keep trying to profit, try to hold gold until the price reverses, then turn nothing timely”, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu said.
Indeed, after skyrocketing to the highest level in history, the price of gold has turned to cool down. This “turn of the wheel” has caused many people to “fall off their horses” because they bought gold at the peak with the expectation that the price would go up.
For the USD investment channel, although the Fed has just raised interest rates and signaled that it will continue to increase from now until the end of the year, in Vietnam, hoarding USD is not an effective solution, because it is still not an effective solution. many potential risks. The purchase of USD from legal institutions usually requires documents to prove the appropriate use needs, not including investment purposes. Moreover, the restriction of buying foreign currency from official organizations to combat dollarization also partly does not stimulate people to pour money into this channel.
Should you invest in stocks or real estate?
Faced with sharp price fluctuations, many investors withdraw from risky investment channels such as cryptocurrencies, securities, etc. to seek other safe investment channels such as bonds, insurance, savings, etc.
For the bank deposit channel, although the savings interest rate is forecasted to increase from now until the end of the year, the savings channel is still not really attractive when the deposit interest rate is forecasted to remain low to support help the economy recover after the pandemic. Therefore, the bank deposit channel is suitable for investors with low risk appetite.
According to the BVSC research team, residential deposit growth is still low this year as people have many investment options with low interest rates.
The trend of investment cash flow is pouring into real estate even though house and land prices are currently considered to be high. Because the psychology of many domestic investors is to “keep the land” for sure.
Economist Le Xuan Nghia said that in 2022, cash flow will continue to increase strongly into real estate, despite rising inflation, mainly the speculative market. Besides, many investors are worried about taking profits in securities, so they also pour money into real estate.
In the past time, negative information has made the stock market fluctuate in the short term, but in the medium term, the stock can still go up thanks to many positive prospects. In particular, short-term fluctuations are also an opportunity to adjust stocks in the market to a balance and suitable for long-term investment.
According to Mr. Khong Phan Duc, Chairman of VietinBank Capital, in the context of rising inflation, the macroeconomic factors of the economy are not confirming a good trend but still at the stage where it is necessary to consider assessing price re-valued, investors still need to be cautious when putting money down.
“The input factors of the economy have all increased in price, essential goods and finished goods have increased on a worldwide scale. Vietnam is no exception to this spiral, but the domestic economy is adapting. In this context, investment channels in production and business will soon become attractive”, Mr. Khong Phan Duc analyzed.
Chairman of VietinBank Capital also said that the stock market recently did not show a steady uptrend, causing investor sentiment to hesitate. On the current floor, there is a clear division, the stocks that benefit from the price increase such as fertilizer, cement, iron and steel will help investors make profits, but after being over-reflected, they will go down. Cash flows tend to be distributed evenly across the investment needs of the economy.
“Because investors have more and more options, the cash flow into securities is hesitant, up and down, and difficult to predict. But surely, 2022 is not as expected of stock investors. securities last year, so it is necessary to be very cautious,” said Mr. Khong Phan Duc.
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