Russia’s “Plan A” Bankruptcy?
After the Russian military forces failed to achieve a quick victory over the Army Ukrainesome senior US officials say there are now signs that the Kremlin is starting to turn to a new strategy with the goal of capturing important territories while at the same time applying pressure. The Ukrainian government must accept the role of neutrality between Russia and the West.
According to the interpretation of the United States and its allies, the original plan (“Plan A”) of Russian President Vladimir Putin was to seize the capital Kiev for a few days and then replace the government led by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with a new pro-Russian government.
However, after more than 3 weeks of fighting, Russia has not achieved any of the above goals, forcing Putin to adjust his tactics.
A burning Russian tank is seen in the Sumy region, Ukraine, March 7. Photo: Reuters
CHANGE TARGET, IMPLEMENTATION OF “PLAN B”
According to the latest assessments of President Putin’s intentions shared by senior officials in the Joe Biden administration, Moscow will force Kie to accept Russia’s claims to the southern territories and territories. East.
After capturing both the Crimean Peninsula and parts of the Donbass in 2014, Russia has always sought to establish a “land bridge” between western Russia and Crimea, while expanding its control over Crimea. with the Donbass area.
In addition, Putin will also continue to apply military pressure, including stepping up attacks on cities in Ukraine with the calculation that this will make Zelensky give up hope of joining the West and accept the situation. neutrality and other Russian demands.
If Russia’s demands for territory and neutrality are denied, Putin will most likely try to hold on to all the territories that Russian forces already hold and continue, a US official said. fight.
“From a military perspective, our assessments suggest he’s reverting to encirclement tactics,” a US official said.
Putin’s assessment of “Plan B,” as one American official calls it, comes with several important caveats. U.S. officials have suggested that Putin could broaden his war goals if the Russian military achieves more success against Ukrainian forces.
Regarding the status of the capital Kiev, this is still an open question and in the face of strong resistance from Ukraine, it is not clear whether the Russian Army can mobilize enough forces to blockade Kiev and capture it.
“His goals have not changed,” said Daniel Fried, a former senior State Department official and US ambassador to Poland. What changes is the strategy.”
Military map of Ukraine as of March 20. Source: Al Jazeera
Currently, Russian forces are facing a number of enormous challenges, including logistical problems, shortages of precision-guided munitions, and growing casualties, which, according to US estimates, the number of combatants in the country is increasing. Russian deaths could reach 7,000 people.
In Mariupol and other cities, Russian forces are reverting to some of the siege tactics they used in Grozny in 1999 and 2000 during the Second Chechen war when Putin came to power as prime minister. General and later the President of Russia.
However, Russia is facing the challenge of trying to gain control of many cities in a country with a population of 44 million, and an area larger than France.
After weeks of fierce fighting, Russian troops have entered the streets of the port city of Mariupol, a strategically important goal for Moscow as it seeks to establish a corridor from the Crimean Peninsula to western Russia. Russia.
Gaining control of this city would bring the Russians a victory on the battlefield, albeit at a heavy cost.
After initial rounds of negotiations, Ukraine and Russia are still far apart on views on key issues such as the Kremlin’s demand that President Zelensky’s government recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea, officially ceded control of the Donbass area and abandoned the intention of long-term integration with the West, including the ultimate goal of joining NATO.
John Herbst, the former US ambassador to Ukraine, also believes that the Russian military has changed its tactics on the battlefield, but insists there is no sign that Putin has given up on his ultimate demands.
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