Vietnam scenario could increase by 6 degrees Celsius by the end of this century

The report was produced by more than 60 researchers from Vietnam and France. Assoc.Prof.Dr.Ngo Duc Thanh, Hanoi University of Science and Technology, a scientist involved in developing the report, said GEMMES researchers used the latest datasets from the Climate Research.world program to build a climate model for Vietnam under several policy scenarios. climate.

According to Associate Professor Thanh, when the average temperature increases rapidly, the phenomenon of extreme hot weather will occur. “If previously 35 degrees Celsius was considered a high temperature level, in the future it will become a normal level with the emergence of a new higher temperature of 40 or 45 degrees Celsius,” he said. This can lead to dangerous consequences for human life and the environment if not found quickly enough to adapt to climate change.

The analysis shows that Vietnam had an average annual temperature increase of around 0.89 degrees Celsius in the period from 1958 to 2018, where the last decade has seen the highest increase. Previously, each decade experienced an increase of 0.146 degrees Celsius, while in the last period 1986-2018 the increase was 0.231/decade.

According to scientists, if the Paris Climate Agreement commitments are maintained, Vietnam will experience an average temperature increase of 1.3 degrees Celsius. However, if the commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is maintained, if not fulfilled, the risk of temperature increases sharply. , with a scenario of an increase of 6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

Extreme heat levels, scientists warn, could severely affect agricultural yields, destroy cities and villages, and put many areas at risk of natural disasters, both in number and in severity.

The Mekong Delta is an example of the impact of climate change and environmental change caused by humans. The report suggests that the impacts of climate change are likely to be the biggest threat in the second half of the century. The Mekong Delta faces high subsidence rates, up to 5 cm/yr in some places, mainly due to groundwater extraction (currently ~ 2.5,106 m3/day, with an annual increase of 4%/day). five). If groundwater extraction rates remain at current levels, cumulative decline coupled with sea level rise could cause large parts of the delta to sink below sea level by the end of the century. “30% of the delta is likely to be below sea level when the relative sea level rise reaches 50 centimeters,” the report said.

At the GEMMES report analysis conference on March 9, scientists said that future climate change depends on countries’ concerted efforts to radically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. , according to the Paris agreement.

The GEMMES project is a collaborative project between the Vietnamese government and the French development agency AFD (Agence Française de Développement). A 612-page report on climate research conducted since 2018. It is also a detailed assessment that measures the socio-economic impacts of climate change and proposes adaptation strategies to address these impacts in Vietnam. This report will be presented at the COP26 Conference in 2021.

The program aims to support Vietnam in implementing the Paris agreement and serve as a tool for policymakers to develop long-term development plans to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Through the establishment of a French-Vietnamese network of scientists, GEMMES is also helping Vietnam develop its capacity in the field of climate change research.

Nhu Quynh

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