Russia-Ukraine conflict: Can the world order be turned upside down?

It’s been 4 weeks since Russia conduct a special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. On the battlefield, fighting still takes place. fierce. Western countries tightening economic sanctions against Russia in parallel with military aid to Ukraine.

Since the outbreak of hostilities, nearly 4 million people have left Ukraine. The global economy is beginning to be affected by the conflict. Analysts believe that the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine is and will change the world order as well as international stability that has operated for decades.

Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine. The force fought back fiercely. Both sides suffered many casualties, but the exact number was not confirmed.

On the Russian side, the Ministry of Defense of the country confirmed that it used Kalibr cruise missiles and Iskander missiles while the main ground attack force was T-72B3 tanks, Grad, Smerch and Uragan missile launchers. .. Ukraine also accused Russia of using cluster bombs, which the Kremlin denied.

T-72B3 tanks during a drill at the Kadamovskiy shooting range in Rostov, southern Russia (Photo: AP)

Western countries have shipped many weapons to Ukraine, including Bayraktar drones, Switchblade suicide drones, Starstreak air defense missiles, Stinger mobile air defense missiles, and medium-range anti-tank missiles. Javelin, next generation anti-tank weapons, rifles, machine guns, sniper rifles and various artillery shells… However, Western countries still avoid deeper intervention.

In addition to fierce battles in urban areas, Russia and Ukraine conducted four rounds of negotiations. More than 4 million people have been evacuated from Ukraine since Russia launched a special operation. They are temporarily taking refuge in neighboring countries such as Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Belarus… Meanwhile, about 7 million people are believed to be internally evacuated.

The Vietnamese community in Ukraine has about 7,000 people, most of whom have lived in this country for many years. When the war broke out, most of them took refuge in neighboring countries. To date, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has coordinated with relevant agencies to organize flights to bring nearly 1,400 Vietnamese and their families who wish to return home safely.

Russia-Ukraine negotiations and each side’s position

So far, Russia and Ukraine have undergone four rounds of negotiations. In the latest round of negotiations, the two sides focused on issues of peace, ceasefire and immediate withdrawal of troops and guarantees on both sides.

On the Russian side, according to Boris Medinsky – Advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin and also Russia’s chief negotiator, Moscow will immediately stop its military operation in Ukraine based on four conditions:

– If Ukrainian forces stop counter-attacking.

– If Kiev accepts a neutral and non-nuclear position.

– If Crimea is recognized as Russian territory.

– If the two breakaway territories of Lugansk and Donetsk are recognized by Ukraine as independent states.

On the Ukrainian side, Mykhailo Podolyak – Adviser to the President of Ukraine Zelensky – affirmed that the immediate withdrawal of Russia’s troops is one of the key points of the peace agreement, and the country wants to have at least one nuclear state. Western individuals participated in the negotiations, a legally binding document on the security mechanism. In return, Kiev is ready to discuss military neutrality.

Ukraine’s neutrality is said to be one of the key factors that can help resolve the current situation.

What do experts say about the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

At this moment, both Russia and Ukraine are carefully considering each condition that the two sides keep specific content confidential. However, on the battlefield, especially in large cities, fierce conflicts with advanced weapons were used.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian (Photo: Reuters)

Mr. Trieu Lap Kien – Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China – said: “Will American weapons bring stability and security to Ukraine or will it cause more civilian casualties? Do Ukrainian civilians need food and sleeping bags or machine guns and mortars?”.

Mrs. Nina Potarska (Image: Commons)

“We only see the interests of those who make money in this war. They even provide loans. This conflict is not just between Ukrainians and Russians, this is a conflict between Russia. and America” – Nina Potarska of the International Women’s Federation for Peace and Freedom said.

Congressman Diane Abbott (Image: Getty)

Ms. Diane Abbott – British MP – said: “NATO is a nuclear power and so is Russia. We need de-escalation and dialogue, not militarization and the threat of war.”.

Nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict from a geographical and historical perspective

To avoid a protracted war, it is not just the two sides stopping the gunfire or the Western countries stopping weapons aid to Ukraine. If we look at the deep roots of this conflict, it can be clearly seen that it stems from conflicts of political interests, vital interests that the parties do not easily give in.

Looking at the geostrategic position that Ukraine holds, it is clear that this country is located in the contiguous belt and is a natural buffer zone between Russia and Western countries. For Russia, Ukraine is a country with close historical ties. It is also the largest former Soviet republic outside Russia, with the largest Russian minority outside Russia. Ukraine is also a gateway for Russia to access, ensure its interests beyond the Black Sea, and maintain the stability of the perimeter defense corridor beyond the border with Belarus and Georgia.

Ukraine has always been in the plans of the European Union countries that want to join, demonstrating a unified Europe, creating a counterbalance to Russia. Meanwhile, militarily, Ukraine also has a special position when it is located right next to the Eastern corridor of NATO, where NATO bases are located in Poland, Lithuania and Romania.

Along with that, both Russia and the West have economic interests in Ukraine as this is the country through which the main gas pipeline from Yamal to Europe runs.

With this geopolitical position, Ukraine itself is always at the center of competition between major powers, facing a difficult decision to choose between Russia and the West. Conflict is always waiting to erupt when the balance is not balanced.

Since 1997, 14 Eastern European countries, including many former Warsaw Pact countries, have joined NATO and the EU. A series of Western military bases, weapons and equipment are located close to Russia. The countries in the buffer zone between Russia and the West such as Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova became the last stop to prevent NATO from covering its forces on the western flank of Russia. Therefore, any of these three countries becoming a member of NATO could be the spark for a war.

Russia has repeatedly asserted that NATO’s admission to Ukraine is a red line that cannot be crossed.

The EU and NATO countries have repeatedly promised Ukraine that, one day, Ukraine will have the opportunity to join the alliance, lighting up hope in Kiev. During more than 20 years, since 1997 when Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma signed the Charter of Special Partnership between NATO and Ukraine, until now, Ukraine’s NATO membership issue has always faced opposition. fiercely from Russia.

However, Ukraine has not given up on the NATO dream. In 2019, the determination to join NATO was even included in the Ukrainian constitution. During President Zelensky’s rule from May 2019 until now, relations between Russia and Ukraine have become tense. Now, Russia has lost its strategic patience and the guns have gone off.

Professor Mearsheimer (Image: London School of Economics)

“Russia certainly doesn’t want a Western shield on its doorstep. This, from Russia’s point of view, makes perfect sense. I don’t understand why so many people in the West don’t understand the simple thing. this simple” – Professor Mearsheimer, a researcher in international politics at the University of Chicago (USA), commented.

According to Professor Mearsheimer, the West’s misunderstanding of Russia’s interests is one of the reasons for the escalation of the conflict.

There are assessments that, the West has disregarded Russia’s warnings from the end of 2021, the beginning of 2022 about protecting the strategic red line.

Mr. Klaus Ernst – Chairman of the German Bundestag on Climate and Energy – said: “Russia certainly has its own security interests. The expansion of NATO to the east is unwise and only in its own interest. Obviously this has made Russia concerned about its security.”.

“Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s border is not the starting point of the current escalation. Looking further east, the West also uses its economic might to push Russian interests away from Russia’s interests. Ukraine” – former German MP Christine Buchholz said.

In 2014, when assessing the Ukraine issue, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger emphasized that if Ukraine wants to survive and prosper, it absolutely cannot become an outpost of any party against the other. act as a bridge. Its geographical position has given Ukraine the mission of being a strategic buffer between Russia and the West. The current conflict in Ukraine is a prime example of how geopolitics cannot be overlooked in each country’s strategic chess game.

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