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Predicting conflict – a difficult problem for US intelligence

US intelligence estimated that the Afghan army could hold out long before the Taliban and Kiev would soon fall to Russian forces, but the results were contradictory.

On February 26, two days after Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine, US intelligence offered to help evacuate President Volodymyr Zelensky from Kiev. They don’t seem to believe that the Ukrainian military is capable of countering the advance of Russian troops and evacuation is an option that Mr. Zelensky.

But Zelensky flatly refused. “War is going on here, I need ammunition, not evacuation,” the Ukrainian president said.

This picture is in stark contrast to what happened in Afghanistan seven months earlier, when the Taliban advanced like bamboo and approached the capital Kabul. President Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani rushed to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while the army dispersed, throwing away uniforms and weapons.

American intelligence has misjudged the fighting spirit of the two countries. In Afghanistan, intelligence agencies estimate that the Ghani government and its soldiers could hold out for at least six months after the US withdrew. Meanwhile at Ukrainethey assumed that Russian troops would enter the capital Kiev within two days of the start of the operation.

“Evaluating the will to fight in a conflict like this is difficult. But the lesson of last year was that we had to find a way to do it,” Senator Angus King, a member of the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee, said. “If we had known beforehand how fierce the Ukrainian resistance was and Russia was not too strong, we could have prepared more equipment in advance and provided support to Ukraine sooner, based on the assumption that they are really strong, have a chance” .





Ukrainian soldiers in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine in late 2021. Photo: AP.

Ukrainian soldiers in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine at the end of 2021. Photo: AP.

Before Russia During the military campaign, several Ukrainian experts told the White House and Congress that the Ukrainian government and people could stand up to Russian forces. However, Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said Ukraine was not ready. “I doubt their will to fight. That’s my poor judgment, because they fought so hard,” said Berrier.

Senator Tom Cotton said US intelligence agencies also rated Russia’s military as very strong before launching the military operation. But as Russian troops began to enter Ukraine, the realities of the battlefield showed that US intelligence assessments of both sides were wrong. However, he added, assessing the effectiveness of a country’s defense against the threat of attack is difficult.

“The will to fight is not an area where you can easily gather intelligence. It’s not like how many fighters there are in the air force. It’s very subjective,” Cotton said.

Adam B. Schiff, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, believes that US intelligence was not entirely wrong in assessing the situation in Ukraine and Afghanistan. Last summer, they repeatedly warned that the Afghan government would collapse and military leaders would surrender to the Taliban.

Schiff asked during an intelligence meeting if Ukraine would go to war against Russia’s military campaign, and the answer was yes. Only US intelligence doesn’t know exactly how it happened.

“If there’s an intelligence blind spot, I think it’s somewhere between two extremes, on the one hand the idea that Ukraine is not going to war and on the other the perception that the Russian military is stronger than it suggests,” Schiff said.

According to US intelligence agencies, Russia will face little resistance from the Ukrainian military and could move quickly to Kiev, rather than engage in a slow war of attrition and siege. That assessment has been proven wrong as Russian forces face multiple logistical difficulties, lack of coordination on major battlefields, and difficulties in maintaining secure lines of communication, according to a former US intelligence agency official.

“No one doubts the Ukrainians’ desire, but with such a small army, analysts say their combat capabilities are limited,” said Douglas H. Wise, a retired and former senior CIA officer, deputy director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency.

There is also no way for American intelligence to predict the leadership of President Zelensky, who has proven to be a key player in the resistance effort and is calling the country to war. One of the reasons US intelligence misjudged is that the Ukrainian government, including Zelensky, did not believe that Russia would launch a military operation.

Two weeks before the operation, King asked US intelligence officials how President Zelensky would respond to the attack. He believes that if President Ashraf Ghani had not fled in the face of the Taliban, the Kabul government could have lasted much longer. Therefore, he wanted to know what the President of Ukraine would do.





A class teaches people's fighting skills in Lutsk, Ukraine this month.  Photo: NY Times.

A class teaches people’s fighting skills in Lutsk, Ukraine this month. Photo: NY Times.

US intelligence officials responded that President Zelensky had publicly downplayed the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, but they didn’t really know how he would react. But in the end, in a pinch, Zelensky was able to play his role as “wartime president,” according to King.

Intelligence America have made many mistakes in assessing the strength of the pro-Western forces they have built, trained and equipped in Iraq and Afghanistan. American officials believed the troops they had trained would fight longer and tougher battles, but things didn’t go according to plan. Former intelligence officials say it is almost impossible to provide an objective analysis of the combat morale of partner soldiers in such situations.

However, whether the United States can better handle future intelligence assessments remains an unanswered question, according to Julian E. Barnes, an analyst at the US Securities and Exchange Commission. NY Times.

US intelligence judges that the Russian operation is not going well, but they believe the President Vladimir Putin will adjust its strategy and increase pressure for the West to stop supporting Ukraine.

Some lawmakers said the comments showed US intelligence was still underestimating the Ukrainian military. “The Ukrainian president has stated that he wants to push Russian troops out of the region,” said Senator Cotton. “A month ago you wouldn’t have thought about this, but now you have to admit it’s a possibility.”

Thanh Tam (Based on NY Times)

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