Stock next week: Waiting for a breakthrough?

Although the world situation has many unpredictable fluctuations and VN-Index has continuously retreated when approaching the resistance area of ​​1,500 – 1,520 points, in the week from March 21 to 25, this index had the strongest recovery. over the past 1 month (from February 14 to now). Along with that, liquidity improved and foreign investors returned to net buying of trillions of dong.

Testing the resistance level of 1,500 points

Joint Stock Company Stock Mirae Asset (Vietnam) believes that a short-term uptrend (1-3 weeks) has been formed after VN-Index surpassed the 20-day MA (moving average). The index is testing resistant level of 1,500 points, which is an important resistance of the mid-term sideways trend. If successfully conquering this threshold, VN-Index will form an uptrend in the medium term.

In the next trading week, March 28 – April 1, VN-Index may struggle and shake with a range of 1,480 – 1,520 points. (Illustration image – Photo: Investment Newspaper)

According to experts from this securities company, when the world market started to stabilize after the 0.25% interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve (FED), Vietnam’s stock market had a week the strongest increase in more than 1 month (from February 14 to now).

VN-Index increased 2%, equivalent to 29.4 points for the week. After 2 strong gaining sessions at the beginning of the week, VN-Index reached the top of 1,513 and tended to correct in the remaining 3 sessions to close the week at 1,498.50 points.

SSI Securities Joint Stock Company stated that the VN-Index has continuously retreated when approaching the resistance area of ​​1,500 – 1,520 points, so the slight correction from the above resistance area is still likely to continue. However, the trading volume remained at low level during the correction sessions, showing that the VN-Index will soon recover again in the next few sessions.

According to Saigon – Hanoi Securities Joint Stock Company (SHS), the market had a second consecutive week of recovery in the context that the tension between Russia and Ukraine could not be ended with an agreement on the negotiating table.

Besides, oil price in the past week also fluctuated strongly as it fell at the beginning of the week, rose again in the middle of the week and adjusted down again at the end of the week after the EU decided not to embargo Russia’s oil. The positive point is that the liquidity has improved, showing that investors’ interest in the market is increasing.

At the end of the trading week, VN-Index increased by 29.4 points to 1,498.5 points; HNX-Index increased by 10.54 points to 461.75 points.

Almost all stock sectors gained in the past week. Industry stocks rose the most with 4.2% of market capitalization, thanks to the excellence of materials and construction codes such as: FCN up 2%, DPG up 2.8%, HT1 up 4.2%, BMP up 4.4%, HBC up 4.7%, cTD and CRT up 5.5%, BTS up 5.7%, CII up 6.5%… Along with that, other tickers in the seaport and warehousing industry such as: GMD increased by 1.7%, HAH increased by 5.1%…

Following is the group of consumer goods with an increase of 3.8% in market capitalization. Specifically, MSN increased by 7.1%, SAB increased by 4%… Materials group also increased by 3.5% of market capitalization, thanks to the excellence of stocks in the chemical industry such as: DCM increased by 9 .9%, CSC up 12.7%, DPM up 16.3%, DGC up 19%…

Followed by financial groups with a 3% increase in market capitalization, pharmaceuticals and healthcare with 2.9%, consumer services with 2.2%, community utilities with 1.7%, and information technology up 0.6%.

On the other side, banking group slightly adjusted 0.3% of capitalization value. Stocks such as: VCB down 2%, CTG down 1.8%, BID down 1%, MBB down 0.9%, ACB down 0.3%…

According to SHS, the order-matching liquidity improved in the past week, showing that the money is still pouring into the market, but caution appeared when the market surpassed the threshold of 1,500 points.

The world situation in the past week did not have new developments as investors were still observing the war situation in Ukraine as well as concerns about rising inflation.

Foreign investors also returned to be net buyers with a value of nearly 2,500 billion dong during the week; in which, DGC was suddenly bought more than 1,000 billion dong and led the list of net buyers for the week.

STB was in second place with a net buying value of 319 billion dong, followed by GEX (263 billion dong) and MSN (231 billion dong). On the net selling side, VNM was sold the most with a value of 274 billion dong.

In the current context, SHS believes that it will be difficult for the market to break through in the short term, but will probably be more prone to tug-of-war and accumulation. Therefore, in the next trading week, March 28 – April 1, VN-Index may struggle and shake with a range of 1,480 – 1,520 points to accumulate the price base and wait for the opportunity to break out again.

Investors who bought in when the market tested the support zone of 1,425 – 1,450 points on March 14 and March 15, can continue to hold the current portfolio and consider taking profits if the market moves forward. resistance around 1,520 points. The decision to buy more is only reasonable if the market has a strong decline to the support zone of 1,425-1,450 points again, recommended by SHS.

Assess the rate of interest rate increase of the Fed

In fact, the Vietnamese stock market rallied in the context that many stock markets around the world went up in the past week.

Closing the week of March 25, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.44% to 34,861.24 points. The S&P 500 index 0.51% to 4,543.06 points. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.16% to 14,169.3 points. For the whole week, the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 were up 2% and 1.8%, respectively, while the Dow Jones was up 0.3%.

Investors are assessing the pace of the Fed’s rate hikes after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell this week said the Fed needed to act quickly to control inflation and raised the possibility of a 50 basis point rate hike in next May.

Yields on US government bonds rose on Monday, with 10-year yields rising to their highest in nearly three years, as the market reacted to high inflation and the risk of a recession if the Fed were to act aggressively. tightening monetary policy.

The 10-year yield was at 2.492%, after rising above 2.5% for the first time since May 2019. Economists at Citibank (USA) believe that the Fed will have four times to raise interest rates by 50 basis points this year, while other banks on Wall Street expect the Fed to quickly tighten monetary policy. when inflation rises sharply.

In Asia, stock markets were mixed on the afternoon of March 25 as investors were concerned about the impact of the Ukraine crisis and rising inflation.

In Tokyo (Japan), the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.1% to 28,149.84 points. Stocks in Sydney, Singapore, Manila and Wellington also rose in this session. Stocks in Mumbai, Taipei, Bangkok and Jakarta fell. The Seoul stock market was almost flat in this session.

In China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 2.5% to 21,404.88 points, while Shanghai’s Shanghai Composite index fell 1.2% to 3,212.24 points.

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