A new security order will form

Russian and Ukrainian negotiators at peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey, March 29. (Source: Reuters)

How do you assess the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict on the security structure and international relations in the region and the world?

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has dragged on for more than a month and is far from over, but the post-Cold War world order is over. A new security order will be formed. The EU may be going back to the Cold War era.

This crisis is a turning point in history. The Helsinki Accords of 1975 ended brutally, and it took a long time to rebuild any form of regional settlement.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is also a geo-economic turning point. The US and Western sanctions are the toughest ever, but given existing weakness in the world’s economic and financial structures, such sanctions are likely to have consequences. politically and physically serious for the world economy as a whole, especially in poor countries.

What are the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine crisis?

The consequences of this crisis can be felt very clearly in the military, political, economic and social spheres.

At first glance, it seems that Russia won easily due to its superior military advantage. President Putin stated that the goal of the operation was demilitarization, not the occupation of Ukraine. It cannot be ruled out that the current hostilities in Ukraine could spread and escalate, spiraling out of control.

On a political level, it cannot be said that there is no risk. Socio-economic difficulties make it impossible not to think of new variables that have appeared and will appear in internal Russian politics. Political uncertainty is also widespread around the world.

On the economic front, international commodity markets have become mixed. Traders panicked after the West announced a second package of sanctions. Prices of crude oil, natural gas, gold… skyrocketed. International companies stay away from Russian exports. Grain and metal shortages pervade the global economy. The energy price shock pushes global inflation higher. Countries that depend on food and energy imports are struggling. Central Asian economies were also caught in a sanctions shock.

The impact of sanctions extends beyond the decisions of G7 and EU governments. Hundreds of large Western companies are withdrawing from Russia.

The social consequences of conflict are enormous. The loss of life and devastation of conflict can lead to radicalization and criminalization within a country. Social aftershocks are not limited to Ukraine. Conflict in the Middle East has left Europe with a refugee crisis in 2015 and the threat of terrorism. Today, a similar scenario cannot be ruled out originating in central Europe itself. In about two decades, those effects on Russia and Europe will be ominous.

How does the Russian government react to these economic sanctions?

Almost immediately, the Russian government identified the unfriendly countries and set a deadline of March 31, 2022 for these countries to convert their gas payments into rubles. President Putin has authorized government officials, the Central Bank of Russia and Gazprombank to take the necessary steps to move all Russian natural gas payments from unfriendly countries to the currency. rubles. The market immediately reacted: the ruble’s exchange rate increased against the USD and Euro, gas prices increased. Experts have both optimistic and cautious opinions about this decision of Russia. Europe, which is dependent on 40% of its gas consumption on Russia, is now struggling to find alternative energy solutions.

Russia responded to Western sanctions with an export control plan. The Russia-Ukraine crisis slows down flights and shipments through Asia-Europe. Petroleum, nickel and wheat supplies are threatened. Auto companies had to close factories because of a lack of spare parts.

In your opinion, what should Russia-Ukraine negotiations do to remove the current stalemate?

Negotiating must be able to solve the urgent requirements being put on the field.

Firstly, Both sides need to cease fire, facilitate the provision of humanitarian aid to refugees, and evacuate both inside and outside Ukraine.

Second, need to negotiate to end the conflict, determine possible compromises for Russia to end the military campaign.

Tuesday, It is necessary to discuss Ukraine’s neutrality status along with the one that ensures security and economic benefits for Ukraine.

Wednesday, stakeholders should contribute to the reconstruction of Ukraine. The West needs to clarify the circumstances in which sanctions on Russia will be lifted.

No party is satisfied with all aspects of the final negotiation, but without compromise, the conflict may not end.