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Russia can earn 321 billion USD from oil and gas

Workers pass a gas station in Kasimov, Russia. (Photo: Bloomberg)

Bloomberg estimates that, despite the conflict in Ukraine and Western sanctions, Russia could still earn $321 billion from oil and gas exports this year, up more than 30% from 2021.

Currently, only a few countries restrict Russian energy imports, including the US and UK. Meanwhile, Germany – Europe’s largest economy, continues to oppose sanctions on the Russian energy industry. Therefore, the country’s oil and gas exports can still be maintained and could only be severely affected if there is an energy embargo from the top importing countries.

The Washington-based Institute of International Finance also said that if the current sanctions are maintained, a significant amount of money will continue to flow into Russia, bringing the country’s current account surplus to reach its limit. a record $240 billion in 2022.

Multinational bank Goldman Sachs forecasts Russia will run a surplus of $205 billion in 2022, which could allow the Central Bank of Russia to meet private-sector foreign exchange needs and ease capital controls.

Meanwhile, analysts at London-based macroeconomic forecasting firm TS Lombard say that the combination of a strong ruble depreciation and rising oil prices will bring in an additional $103 billion. USD for the Russian budget.

According to experts, a “healthy balance sheet” will help the Russian government maintain public spending in the event of inability to access international capital markets, but will not help the Russian economy out of danger. Depression.

In 2021, crude oil and gas will account for half of Russia’s exports and contribute about 40% of state revenue.

The ability to export oil and gas abroad may be the only thing that keeps the Russian economy from falling into a financial recession. According to IIF, if the EU, UK, and the US jointly embargo energy, Russia will lose 20% of its output, equivalent to 300 billion USD export revenue, subject to price changes.

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