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How does Vietnam’s GDP ranking in Southeast Asia change according to the latest forecasts of the World Bank, IMF and ADB?

According to the latest forecast of the IMF, it is likely that in 2022, Vietnam will rank 5th in Southeast Asia in terms of economic size, after Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore and above Malaysia, with a growth rate of 6 6%, reaching 375.2 billion USD.

  How does Vietnam's GDP ranking in Southeast Asia change according to the latest forecasts of the World Bank, IMF and ADB?  - Photo 1.

ADB is a bit less optimistic about its growth forecast, assuming that Vietnam will grow 6.5% in 2022 and reach $374.84 billion, but the ranking is unchanged.

The World Bank does not usually make forecasts for Singapore. This organization forecasts that Vietnam will grow 5.3% and reach 370.62 billion USD.

ADB’s growth forecast for Vietnam is unchanged from the previous report. The organization believes that the recovering labor market, along with the financial and monetary stimulus solutions of the Government’s Economic Recovery and Development Program will boost industrial growth to the expected level. 9.5% in 2022. Agricultural output is expected to grow 3.5% this year, as domestic demand recovers and global commodity prices increase.

The reopening of tourism activities in mid-March and easing of pandemic control measures are expected to boost services, whereby service sector growth is forecast at 5.5% this year. Accelerating disbursement of public investment will promote construction and related economic activities. Coupled with an economic recovery and uncertainty in global oil prices, inflation is expected to rise to 3.8% in 2022 and 4.0% in 2023.

Increased coordination between central and local governments and a rebound in labor mobility will restore confidence among domestic and foreign investors. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, effective January 1, 2022, is expected to boost trade as the Covid-19 pandemic subsides, forming stable export markets. stable and reliable for Vietnam.

Meanwhile, recently, the World Bank has lowered its forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth from 6.5% to 5.3%. The reason for this adjustment is the difficulties that Vietnam has when dealing with the Omicron mutation, which has led to a very high number of new infections. In addition, Vietnam is also greatly affected by the import of oil with a value of up to 3% of GDP.

The import of other raw materials such as iron and steel… were greatly affected when the import price increased. Although Vietnam is also recognized as one of the countries with the most advantages, taking the most opportunities to expand global trade, it is precisely that makes Vietnam vulnerable. than to external shocks.

This means that Vietnam must be more successful in building and perfecting its social security system. The World Bank’s chief economist recommended that Vietnam also be more cautious with the financial system. In fact, the monetary and financial policies that the State Bank offers must be carefully studied.

https://cafef.vn/thu-hang-gdp-cua-viet-nam-o-dong-nam-a-thay-doi-ra-sao-theo-du-bao-moi-nhat-cua-world- bank-imf-va-adb-20220409080103302.chn


According to Thai Quynh

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