Europe anxiously waits for the “fight” of 2017 to return

Survey company Ifop predicts that the upcoming round of voting on April 24 will be close, with 51% of the vote for Emmanuel Macron and 49% for Marine Le Pen. The spreads are so tight that anyone can win. Other polling firms put a slightly better figure for the incumbent president at 54%, but still far below 2017 when the leader beat rival Marine Le Pen with 66.1% of the vote. .

French President Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen. Photo: Reuters

According to expert Gerard Araud, former French Ambassador to the US, the situation was different from 2017. Mr. Macron was then a new face in French politics, but now his decisions have divided the public. France. Rival Le Pen has avoided the most controversial aspects and spearheaded a campaign focused on household purchasing power at a time when inflation is becoming a national concern. All polls so far have shown Mr. Macron to win, but with such a tight margin that the results could be completely reversed.

Europe watches the election with a very different perspective than it did in 2017. According to analyst Eric Maurice at the Robert Schuman Foundation, a Le Pen victory would represent a crisis for the European Union. Europe (EU) and will be even more serious in the context of the war in Ukraine and Le Pen’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. France is the only significant military power in the EU, holds the union’s only permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council and is the only EU member to be a nuclear power. If France pulls out of its efforts to punish Russia, it will be a major blow to the West.

“For the EU, Mr. Macron remains the preferred choice because his victory will help ensure the continuity of pro-European positions. Meanwhile, Ms. Marine Le Pen did not hide her skepticism about France’s obligations and commitments in the EU and therefore the possibility of a Le Pen victory would be a huge political issue for France. Europe,” said Maurice.

Immediately after the results of the first round of voting were released, the British news agency Reuters presented a scenario, if Ms. Le Pen wins, this will be a shock to existing institutions, similar to when Mr. Donald Trump entered the White House in 2017 or when Britain voted to leave the European Union (EU). If this scenario happens, France will go from being the driving force for the integration of the European Union to be led by a leader who is skeptical of Europe and NATO.

The US Associated Press described the second round of the fight between the two leading French presidential candidates as “a fierce head-to-head clash of visions”, with widespread international influence. To win the second round, the coming days will be very busy for both Mr. Emmanuel Macron and Ms. Marine Le Pen’s team as they must find a way to entice the votes of voters in favor of the 10 presidential candidates who were rejected. defeated in the first round. Although most of the candidates have publicly expressed their opposition to the far-right candidate, how drastic it will be is no one can predict.

Thu Hoai