French Presidential Election: Old scenario repeats?

The current constitution in this country stipulates that if no presidential candidate wins a majority of the voters’ votes in the first election, then the two presidential candidates get the highest percentage of votes. will enter the knockout round in the second round of elections that will take place exactly two weeks later.

The results of opinion polls in France on April 8, two days before the election, showed that Mr. Macron continued to lead, but was trailed by Marine Le Pen, the leader of the right-wing party. catching up after a groundbreaking campaign made Mr. Macron no longer certain of winning the election as he did five years ago. All indications are that no candidate will win the presidency in the first round of elections and French voters will have to go to the polls for a second time on April 24 to choose between Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen. .

Five years ago, these two fought each other in both the first and second round of elections. Mr. Macron finally won a resounding election. On that day, Mr. Macron became the youngest President in the history of France thanks to the image of a man capable of creating a new beginning for France, sketching a new future for France in the country. Europe and around the world. Meanwhile, Ms. Le Pen was hesitated by a large majority of voters in France about her extreme right-wing, populist and nationalist views such as anti-foreigners, especially Muslims, unfriendly towards the EU. and NATO. France was then aware that change was needed but was not ready to accept extreme change.

Mr. Macron has had quite a successful term in office, but also has many failures. This person has not yet shaken off the image of being perceived to care more about the rich in the minority than in the poor who make up the majority. The wave of protests forced Mr. Macron to give up many of his plans to rule. The response to the COVID-19 epidemic has not been successful. Consumer prices are currently rising. At first, this person was so confident that he would win the election that he announced his re-election very late, almost did not campaign but only used power, focusing entirely on claiming the role of handling the election. The current political and security crisis in Europe, in particular, has a direct impact on Russian President Vladimir Putin for Russia to end the hostilities in Ukraine. Such diplomacy helps Mr. Macron to enhance international prestige to a certain extent. But in the past in European countries, the domestic affairs and day-to-day concerns of voters often determine elections. French voters these days no longer pay much attention to Macron’s foreign activities, but only pay attention to the difficult living conditions, the still raging epidemic and the sharp increase in gasoline prices.

Meanwhile, Ms. Le Pen carried out a fierce campaigning campaign, focusing on the domestic issues of most concern to voters, abandoning extreme views such as anti-EU and NATO, create a perception of the new image and nature of the policy. In addition, the participation of candidate Eric Zemmour of the far-right and populist faction has helped Le Pen be seen as “near the center, far from the right”.

Opinion polls in France also show that up to 46% of French voters are willing to elect a person with extreme views as president, the highest percentage since France implemented direct presidential elections from France. 1965 to present. All of this makes Ms. Le Pen a formidable political opponent more than five years ago for Mr. Macron.

Will the old scenario repeat itself in France with a duel between Mr. Macron and Mrs. Le Pen? If he is re-elected, it is certain that Mr. Macron will not have a resounding election like 5 years ago.