Hot Ukrainian Eastern Front

Russian warship launches Kalibr cruise missiles at a target in the city of Dnipro, in the clip released by the Russian Defense Ministry on April 10 – Photo taken from the clip

Donbass is a front that is both familiar and new to Russia. Familiar because this is the place where the fighting has been fought for the past 8 years between the Ukrainian army and the Russian-backed separatists.

New in that, this time, Russia was faced with a Ukrainian army that received weapons and supplies from the West.

Dnipro . stopper

Western intelligence has continuously warned in the last two days that Russia is about to launch a large-scale offensive operation from the city of Izium in the Kharkov region to the city of Dnipro – the capital of the Dnipropetrovsk region and also the third largest city. of Ukraine.

Looking at the war map of Ukraine, Dnipro is really a strategic location, the gateway of the Donbass region to the rest of Ukraine.

If Russia establishes a land corridor from Izium to Dnipro, the entire Donbass region including the regions controlled by the Ukrainian army and most of the Dnipropetrovsk region (Kharkov) will be behind their lines. According to military observers, it is possible that Russia is considering going around the Ukrainian army’s battlefield in the Donbass region to ambush from behind.

To serve this plan, according to the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia is organizing at least three offensive axes. In it, the main axis is from the separatist-controlled areas of Donetsk and Lugansk to the west.

The axes of support include: the axis from the city of Kharkov to the southwest and the axis from the Crimean peninsula, the city of Kherson to the northeast. These two armies are expected to create a pincer position with Dnipro, thereby establishing a corridor from Izium to Dnipro.

So far, Russia has remained silent about its upcoming goals. On the ground, targets in Dnipro have been targeted over the past few days, described by local officials as “air raid sirens sounding almost every hour”.

Western satellite images taken on April 8 and published on April 10 of a military convoy about 13km long moving through the town of Velkyi Burluk near Izium also raised speculation that this was Russian reinforcements preparing to attacked by Dnipro.

Source: Institute for War Studies (USA) – Data and Vietnameseization: Duy Linh – Graphics: T.DAT

Ukraine calls reinforcements

The real plan of attack in eastern Ukraine is certainly clear only to the Russian leadership. While the West’s warning seems reasonable, one big issue is how Russia will control a nearly 200km-long corridor from Izium to Dnipro.

If Moscow’s plan is to go as the West says, preparing logistics and ensuring that the entire army is not divided will be one of Russia’s priorities and will require a large force to make this happen.

“The Russian military will move to even larger operations in eastern Ukraine. They can use more missiles against us, even more bombs. But we are preparing and will have the answer. words for those actions,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his determination in a video message broadcast on April 11.

In a speech the same day later before the National Assembly of South Korea, Zelensky called on Seoul to increase aid to Kiev, noting that South Korea has assets that can help Ukraine intercept Russian missiles and warships.

It is not difficult to understand that the Ukrainian leadership is impatient and repeatedly calls on the West to speed up arms aid. This is partly due to the fact that Russia is concentrating its troops in the east, and partly from the perception of the Kiev government that the West is afraid and carefully considers transferring weapons to Ukraine so as not to escalate. tensions with Russia.

According to Politico, there is a current of opinion among European scholars that Ukraine is doing very well in asymmetric warfare and only needs defensive weapons to hold out until Russia feels the impact of sanctions. punish.

The UK’s delivery of armored vehicles and anti-ship missiles to Ukraine is a remarkable step, marking the first time that the West has delivered such missiles to Kiev. Ukraine has received many attacks from cruise missiles launched by Russia from warships in the Black Sea and Sea of ​​Azoz. Even so, whether any country will follow in the footsteps of Britain is still a question open question.