Weather

More than 100 million people are in the path of hail, high winds and tornadoes

Tuesday and Wednesday are shaping up to be volatile, with more than 100 million people in the path of severe storms – expected to bring destructive hail, powerful tornadoes and gusty winds.

Forty-five million people are at risk of severe storms Tuesday along the 1,000-mile stretch from southern Minnesota to the Gulf Coast. Cities at third risk include Minneapolis; Des Moines, Iowa; Omaha, Nebraska; Kansas City, Missouri; Wichita, Kansas; Oklahoma City; Tulsa, Oklahoma; Little Rock, Arkansas; Dallas; Austin, Texas; City of Houston; Shreveport, Louisiana; and Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

The storm is forecast to be in the afternoon and will last into the night. Fast storm movement (with times moving faster than 50 mph) and hurricanes, which are expected to continue after dark, will strengthen Tuesday’s dangerous setup.

Nighttime tornadoes are more than twice as likely to cause death as daytime tornadoes.

Although tornadoes, high winds and very large hail are possible across the entire region, there are two specific areas that require special concern.

The first area includes much of Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and eastern Kansas, as well as southern Minnesota. This is where the risk is highest for strong, long-distance tornadoes (EF2 and above) Tuesday afternoon and evening.

The second potentially more inclement area Tuesday is across central and northern Texas, where the greatest risk of destructive hail is the size of a baseball or larger.

Between these two areas there is high uncertainty about storm coverage. A sturdy cover in place (a layer of warm air can prevent storms from forming) can prevent many storms from erupting until late afternoon, if any.

On Wednesday, the risk extended north and east to include 60 million people from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Cities to watch include Chicago; St. Louis; Nashville, Tennessee; Memphis, Tennessee; Little Rock, Arkansas; Jackson, Mississippi; Birmingham, Alabama; and New Orleans.

Major storms are likely to continue into the morning hours and will last throughout the day. Harmful winds in excess of 75 mph would be the greatest risk, followed by strong tornadoes and very large hail.

Widespread flooding is unlikely, but 1 to 2 inches of rain, if dropped over a short period of time, could cause some isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. .

At the same time, a historic April snowstorm will hit the northern Rockies and Northern Plains Tuesday through Thursday.

A blizzard warning was issued Tuesday for a combination of heavy snow and gusts of up to 50 mph, which would make travel impossible and sometimes life-threatening. Massive power outages are also possible, and storms can cause damage to crops and livestock.

A large area will get 6 to 12 inches of snow, but eastern Montana to North Dakota could get up to 2 to 3 feet.

Due to the expected prolonged nature of this storm, this high total snowfall could be a record.

Bismarck, North Dakota’s largest April blizzard on record was 17.8 inches in 2013. Current forecasts it could beat that record, with 12 to 24 inches of snow.

Perhaps more impressively, the statewide snowfall record could be in jeopardy. The North Dakota state record for the most snowfall in 24 hours was 27 inches, set on April 27, 1984, in Minot. Some zoned areas could get 30 to 40 inches of snow, possibly breaking that record.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, high temperatures in the 90s combined with low humidity and gusts above 55 mph could lead to wildfire outbreaks across the western High Plains.

Fourteen million people are under red flag warnings and 27 million are under wind warnings as of Tuesday covering the Southwest Desert to the Four Corners to the western High Plains.

An extremely severe fire hazard is brewing Tuesday across western parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Amarillo and Lubbock in Texas are the largest cities in the fire hazard area.

Along with the threat of wildfires, a fast-moving cold front is expected to cut across the extremely attractive region near sunset. Strong forward longitudinal winds combined with strong north and northwesterly directional winds can affect fire direction and propagation speed.

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