True value or speculative psychology?

At the Talkshow “The Future of Real Estate in Thu Duc City” recently organized by CafeLand, Economist, Dr. Dinh The Hien assessed that, for many years, any locality with planning information on the city also led to the effect of increasing land prices and sometimes creating waves.

From 2019, the real estate market has quite good prospects, along with warnings about prices being too high. However, with two main motivations including:

The first, Exports increased sharply, jobs developed when many foreign enterprises entered industrial zones.

Second, International visitors peaked, second only to Thailand, creating a new impetus for the real estate market of Vietnam in general and Ho Chi Minh City in particular.

“City. Thu Duc was born at a time when Vietnam was facing the COVID-19 pandemic. In terms of macroeconomics, the past two years have not been favorable for the real estate market, but since its establishment, land prices in some streets in Ho Chi Minh City have been affected. Thu Duc increased very strongly,” said Mr. Hien.

According to the expert, at first, many people thought that this was an increased effect from the information on the establishment of the city. Thu Duc and many other investors went ahead to take the lead. However, gradually, when observing more in other places, this price increase is not only limited to Ho Chi Minh City. Thu Duc but also covers areas with no development potential with the same growth rate.

“Clearly, the sharp increase in real estate prices in the two years 2020-2021 shows the attractiveness of Ho Chi Minh City. Thu Duc. However, the rapid increase in real estate prices not commensurate with the real value will create difficulties for real estate developers and be a barrier to the sustainable development of the market.

Because, developers have to buy vacant land or undeveloped areas to build mid-high-end projects. When the purchase price of land is too high, the project development is difficult and very slow.

This leads to only speculators keeping the land, while the real developer cannot buy land to develop the project, forming a commercial and service center as expected, “Dr. Dinh The Hien commented.

Thu Duc Real Estate: Real value or speculative psychology?  - Photo 1.

The expert also cited an example showing two sides of the increase in real estate prices in the HCMC area. Thu Duc in the past time: “Besides areas with land prices commensurate with development such as Thao Dien – a near-premium commercial and service area for foreigners, there are still areas where the price of villas is 20-30 billion VND. /unit but vacant for the past 5-7 years, unable to do mining business or exploit with very low rate”.

According to the expert, in the coming time, if real estate in Vietnam in general and the southern region returns to a reasonable price, that is, money flows in with real demand from investors buying to exploit and invest. private; No longer the phenomenon of waves, speculation and money flow of large groups, TP. Thu Duc will have more reasonable prices for developers.

Discuss the development potential of the city. In the future, Mr. Hien believes that each district itself inherently has its own advantages, which can be developed on par with a level 3 city of other localities, in terms of population, GDP, etc. that, when combined, TP. Thu Duc has enough internal resources to develop (not to mention potential), even GDP equal to a medium province.

In terms of planning, the Northwest axis has always been the main direction planned for middle and high-class residential development. It is no coincidence that the Thu Duc university village and later national universities were located here. Only for a long time, the Phu My Hung area (Southern area) was so prominent that the Northwest was quiet. If developed in the right direction, the GDP of the city. Thu Duc can surpass the leading localities.

“The problem is how to combine these three areas in a rhythmic manner from the functional subdivision, the connection subdivision to promote the strengths of each area. Must be soft programming and this problem is not easy.

Ten years ago, the area near An Suong intersection connecting with Tan Binh and District 1 was very deserted, but now the population density is very high. If properly developed, not to have real estate speculators, but to have adequate developers, to attract people to live and work, then the city. Thu Duc can develop a population many times higher than the current one. A large population is money, where there is a large population, there is money”, Dr. Dinh The Hien commented.

According to Tuan Minh

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