Uncategorized

3 GDP growth scenarios, “hot” warnings about bad debt

GDP growth in the first quarter of 2022 was positive with an increase of about 5.03%. Many experts forecast, in a positive scenario, GDP growth could still reach about 6-6.5%.

In the first quarter of 2022, Vietnam’s economy recovered more and more clearly, with brighter colors thanks to the Government’s drastic restoration and opening of economic, cultural and social activities.

The positive GDP growth in the first quarter of 2022 is an example. According to data from the General Statistics Office, GDP growth in the first quarter of 2022 is estimated at 5.03%, higher than the increase of 4.72% and 3.66% in the first quarter of two years ago. This is a good growth rate, in the context of epidemics, geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures, prices increase; achieve the Government’s target in Resolution 01 (4.9-5.4%).

In which, the main growth driver is the industry and construction sector with an increase of 6.38% (contributing 51.08% to the overall growth) and the service sector increasing by 4.58% (contributing 43.16). %).

Bad debt risk, adding

Foreign direct investment is also a positive signal. Accumulated to the end of March 20, 2022, registered FDI capital was estimated at 8.91 billion USD, down 12% over the same period (mainly because newly registered capital was only 3.21 billion USD, down 55, 5%, but increased by 37.6% in number of projects); additional registered capital increased sharply (4.07 billion USD, up 93.8%); capital contribution and share purchase also increased sharply by 101.2%, reaching 1.63 billion USD.

In particular, FDI disbursement reached US$4.42 billion, up 7.8% – the highest level of the first quarter in the past 5 years, showing that the situation of FDI disbursement in Vietnam continues to be positive, thanks to Vietnam Nam has controlled the epidemic, well implemented the vaccine coverage strategy, actively opened the economy and is determined to improve the investment and business environment.

Three positive GDP growth scenarios can still reach around 6-6.5%

From the positive results from the first quarter of 2022, Dr. Can Van Luc and the authors of the BIDV Training and Research Institute predict that Vietnam’s economy will regain a strong recovery momentum, thanks to high vaccine coverage, appropriate changes in epidemic prevention strategies, and restoration of health care facilities. socio-economic activities under new normal conditions.

Accordingly, with a positive scenario, GDP growth can still reach around 6-6.5% if Vietnam well implements the epidemic prevention and control program, the program on socio-economic recovery and development 2022-2023 and minimize risks and negative impacts from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In the medium scenario, growth could reach 5.5-6%. Meanwhile, in the negative scenario, growth may only reach 4.5-5%.

Previously, Mr. Nguyen Minh Cuong – ADB Chief Economist expressed his belief that Vietnam’s economic growth will reach 6.5% in 2022 and 6.7% in 2023, due to the high vaccination rate, boosting trade trade and continue to implement expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.

The ADB expert analyzes the recovery that can be achieved by the Government’s economic recovery and development program (ERDP) in 2022 and 2023, including fiscal solutions such as tax exemption and reduction policies, support for health care. health care, infrastructure development and social security and interest rate support for businesses and business households.

HSBC experts forecast Vietnam’s economic growth in 2022 at 6.2%. The World Bank forecasts Vietnam’s economic growth to reach 5.3%.

Inflation forecast, according to Dr. Can Van Luc and the authors, inflation pressure, global prices of goods and services are at a high level along with Vietnam’s economic recovery momentum higher than in 2021; The delay of fiscal and monetary policy expansion along with the implementation of the Recovery Program will be the main challenges to the inflation control target in 2022. Taking into account the improvement in demand, the excitement becomes As a result of socio-economic activities and the impact of the second and third rounds of the increase in gasoline prices, the average CPI in 2022 is forecast to be at 3.8-4.2%, possibly higher than the target of 4. % but acceptable in the context of a sharp increase in global inflation and Vietnam needs to prioritize recovery this year.

Coupled with an economic recovery and uncertainty in global oil prices, inflation is expected to rise to 3.8% in 2022 and 4.0% in 2023.

Mr. Nguyen Minh Cuong – Chief Economist of ADB

Four risks, challenges

Identifying more risks in 2022, according to Dr. Can Van Luc said that our country’s economy faces at least four difficulties and challenges.

Firstly, the Covid-19 epidemic in the world and Vietnam is still complicated, with the appearance of a new variant that has a significant impact on the plan of opening up and socio-economic recovery; requires continued close monitoring, accelerated vaccine progress and appropriate response plans and scenarios.

Second, inflationary pressure is increasing.

CPI in March 2022 increased by 0.7% compared to the previous month (the highest in 11 years) with most groups of goods and services increasing in price. In the first quarter, the average CPI increased by 1.92% over the same period in 2021, much higher than 0.29% in the first quarter of 2021; core inflation increased by 0.81% (higher than 0.67% in the same period last year).

Inflationary pressure gradually increased due to both demand-pull factors (recovery economy, increased demand) and cost-push factors (due to the sharp increase in world prices of goods and services, causing input costs, transportation costs) to increase. , warehousing, food and food prices all increased). The breakdown shows that the transport and housing sectors, and construction materials alone contributed to more than 80% of the overall CPI increase in the first quarter.

Bad debt risk, adding

Bad debt is still a challenge in 2022 for Vietnam. (Photo: TN)

Third, disbursement of public investment is slow, not as expected: although the realized investment capital from the state budget increased by 10.6% over the same period in 2021, it is a lower level than the same period 2 years ago. only reached 14.4% of the year plan, not meeting the Government’s expectation despite many urgings and measures over the past time, showing that this is still a big challenge.

Fourth, bad debt is still a challenge. Mr. Luc said that, in the context that the epidemic could still continue in 2022, although businesses recovered, there were still many difficulties, some service sectors recovered slowly, causing bad debts to tend to increase. .

According to the State Bank of Vietnam, by the end of 2021, the on-balance sheet bad debt ratio is about 1.5%, but if we include bad debts sold to VAMC that have not been resolved and potential bad debts from restructured debts. the gross bad debt ratio could be around 6.3% (compared to 5.1% at the end of 2020).

With this momentum, it is forecast that the bad debt on the balance sheet may reach 2% and the gross bad debt will be about 6% in 2022 and will be a challenge when the policies of debt delay, debt restructuring and Resolution 42 of the National Assembly. on bad debt settlement expired.

This poses a request to extend and adjust Resolution 42 on bad debt settlement (which will expire from August 15, 2022) along with the efforts of credit institutions in increasing risk provisions and debt settlement. bad.

You are reading the article 3 GDP growth scenarios, “hot” warnings about bad debt
at Blogtuan.info – Source: danviet.vn – Read the original article here

Back to top button