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What will Taiwan do if it is cut off from the mainland’s energy supply?

Observers say that Taiwan may be severely affected, but the impact will spread throughout the region, so Beijing cannot take it lightly.

What will Taiwan do if it is cut off from the mainland's energy supply?  - 1 . photo

Taiwan imports most of its liquefied natural gas for the domestic market

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According to South China Morning Post On April 10, observers said that Beijing could take an indirect measure, with low risk of stopping energy supply for Taiwan, although the possibility of reunification by force is not ruled out.

Accordingly, the blockade of energy supply will affect the lives of all residents on the island, causing prices to skyrocket. In that case, isolation could make negotiating reunification a real option.

This is a possibility that Taiwan Defense Agency each warning. In a report last year, the agency said that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has the ability to blockade ports and major sea and air routes.

In a report to Congress in 2021, the US Department of Defense also said that the blockade would cut off an important source of imports, forcing Taiwan to quickly compromise.

Lack of strategic reserves

Taiwan imports virtually all of its natural gas, and a blockade of key ports will cut off new supplies.

According to Associate Professor Alexander Huang of Strategic Studies at Tamjiang University (Taiwan), Taiwan only reserves liquefied natural gas (LNG) is enough for 2 weeks and crude oil for 90 days.

“If you only have liquefied petroleum gas for two weeks, that’s not a strategy,” Huang said.

This expert said that the Taiwan Maritime Self-Defense Force cannot go far into the South China Sea to escort energy ships due to the fact that mainland China military illegalize many entities here.

Therefore, Taipei will need help from the maritime powers. “It’s an under-explored area, and it’s also a frequent debate between Taiwan and the United States about what role, function or capability Taiwan needs,” Huang said.

He said that Taiwan wants to have full capabilities, large ships, Aegis systems to be able to go far and direct independent maritime operations to protect the shipping lanes.

According to expert Drew Thompson at the School Public policy Lee Kuan Yew at National University SingaporeTo blockade, the PLA simply sent ships to the coast of Kaohsiung to the south and Keelung to the north of Taiwan, two cities with major ports on the island, to block maritime trade.

“There will be no need to put a large iron ring around Taiwan. In the case of China, there will be no need to deploy by military means and still greatly hinder,” he said.

The impact cannot be underestimated

In addition to raising prices and massive capital outflows from Taiwan, a threat alone would deter commercial ships from calling, with ripple effects throughout the region.

More than 30% of commercial crude oil and 40% of commercial LNG passed through the waters in 2016, the US Energy Information Administration said.

Countries in the Middle East also transport exported oil by sea through this region to supply buyers such as Japan, KoreaThailand and Taiwan.

Taiwan conducts anti-landing drills on islands near China

However, such a blockade or threat of a blockade would also affect mainland China. Such action would lead to an increase in maritime costs and risks as well as the risk premium for the port of Shanghai, Thompson said.

“This will be a huge economic burden for the major trading centers in China as well as for international shipping. So I don’t think it’s something that China takes lightly,” he said.

In addition, this expert also analyzed more about the possibility of China facing international sanctions, affecting the global economy such as rising inflation and economic disruption.

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