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Obstacles prevent Russia from opening a major battle in eastern Ukraine

Russia needs a lot of time to make up for lost forces, and faces many difficulties in terms of logistics and weather when preparing for the operation in eastern Ukraine.

At the end of March, the Russian military announced that it had completed the first phase of a military operation in Ukraine and would focus on “liberating” the Donbass region, in the east of the country. Russian forces then withdrew from the suburbs of the capital Kiev and northern Ukraine.

Maxar Technologies, Colorado-based company of Americarecently released satellite photos taken earlier this week showing a large amount of Russian weapons have been concentrated near eastern Ukraine.





An armored convoy of pro-Russian separatists in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine.  Photo: Reuters.

An armored convoy of pro-Russian separatists in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine. Image: Reuters.

Russia has also appointed General Alexander Dvornikov, who has experienced the battle in Syria, as commander-in-chief of the second phase of the campaign in the Donbass region. This is considered a big battle, which can decide the situation on the battlefield and the negotiation table between the two countries.

However, two weeks after announcing the shift in focus of the military campaign, Russian forces remained motionless in eastern Ukraine, raising questions about what was preventing Moscow from carrying out its plans.

According to the news agency APPart of the reason why Russia has not deployed the second phase of the campaign is that after a period of fierce resistance on the northern Ukrainian front, Russian military units have suffered certain losses and need more. time to replenish forces and weapons.

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry estimates 19,100 Russian servicemen have been killed since the fighting began. Ukraine also claims that Russia has lost 705 tanks, 1,815 armored vehicles, 151 aircraft and 136 helicopters over the past month.

Russia denies this figure. The Russian Defense Ministry said on March 25 that 1,351 Russian servicemen were killed and 3,825 wounded during the operation in Ukraine. Russian forces claimed to have destroyed 650 Ukrainian military aircraft of various types, including fighter jets and helicopters, as well as more than 2,000 tanks and armored vehicles.

After withdrawing from Kiev, Chernihiv and Sumy, Russian forces withdrew to Belarusian territory as well as areas in western Russia to resupply and replenish forces for the new campaign.

According to Richard Barrons, co-chair of the consulting firm Universal Defense & Security Solutions, based in London, England, Russia is trying to move additional weapons from elsewhere and mobilize reserves to build a force. attack strong enough. This may delay the campaign somewhat.

At the same time, Russian forces are trying to quell the last resistance at Mariupol after more than a month and a half besieging the key port city in southeastern Ukraine.





Tanks of pro-Russian separatists on the streets of Mariupol, southeastern Ukraine, April 5.  Photo: Reuters.

Tanks of pro-Russian separatists on the streets of Mariupol, southeastern Ukraine, April 5. Image: Reuters.

Observers speculate that Russia will launch a military operation in the Donbass after fully controlling Mariupol and the units withdrawn from northern Ukraine complete the redeployment of forces.

Ukrainian and Western experts believe that in the second phase of the operation, the Russian military will try to mobilize enough forces to form a pincer position to surround Ukrainian soldiers in Donbass.

Some predict Russia could also use its forces north of Crimea to capture the industrial centers of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro on the Dnieper River, dividing Ukraine in two.

Barrons said that focusing on such a number of key targets helps Russian forces not have to “try to do three or four big things at once, causing the air force and logistics lines to be stretched”.

“The question is whether Russia can muster enough force to overwhelm a very well defended Ukrainian position,” he said.

In addition to mobilizing forces, the Russian military in the second phase of the campaign will likely still face logistical challenges similar to those they encountered in the first phase.

As they advanced on Kiev, Russian military convoys lined up along the highways leading to the capital, becoming easy targets for Ukrainian artillery, drones and reconnaissance forces.

The logistical support of the operation in the east is equally difficult, as Russia’s supply lines are likely to face ambushes from Ukraine. Spring weather causes trees to grow, and the expanded cover will be the perfect camouflage for Ukrainian soldiers and scouts to apply guerrilla tactics.

According to a senior Pentagon official, recent heavy rains in the Donbass region could make it more difficult for the Russian military to reorganize efforts.

Heavy rains for many days made the ground in the Donbass soggy, making it impossible for the Russian military convoy to leave the highways to avoid the risk of getting bogged down. That fact could make it easier for Ukrainian forces to launch strikes, the official said. Heavy rains are expected to continue for the next few days, making efforts to rally Russian forces more difficult.

Control of the sky is also an issue, as Ukraine increasingly perfects its air defense capabilities, posing a significant threat to Russian fighter jets. Without air support, the advance of ground forces would certainly slow down. Russia recently conducted air strikes against Ukraine’s long-range air defense systems, apparently in preparation for its campaign in the east.

Ben Barry, an expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, assessed that Ukrainian forces in the east have for many years prepared a defensive posture in depth, so the Russian military will face many difficulties in these battles. war.

“Ukraine has fortified important towns and villages that it wants to protect,” he said. Tanks, armor and other heavy equipment of Ukraine in Donbass are located in protected positions. Many Ukrainian soldiers in the east have extensive experience dealing with the separatists since 2014 until now. Their numbers could also increase if Ukrainian military commanders deploy reinforcements from Kiev after Russia’s withdrawal from the north.

Michael Kofman, an expert on Russian military affairs at CNA, a Washington think tank, said the decision to pivot to the east appeared to be a sign that Russia “is adjusting its operational objectives” to its priorities. for places where they can actually achieve success.

“That gives Moscow an option to declare to its people at home that Russia has won and end the campaign,” Kofman said.

If the Donbass is controlled by May 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin could announce the achievement on Russia’s Victory Day, the event commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945, according to Paul Kirby, an analyst veteran of BBC.





The appearance of the Ukrainian battlefield after 8 weeks of fighting.  Graphics: Al Jazeera.  Click on the picture to see details.

The appearance of the Ukrainian battlefield after 8 weeks of fighting. Graphics: Al Jazeera. Click on the picture to see details.

Given the strategic significance and special importance of this region, it is understandable that Russia spends more time planning and preparing, analysts said.

After all, according to Barron, if Russian forces are well prepared, a victory in eastern Ukraine is not impossible. “If the Russians learn the lesson and can concentrate more forces, and can better connect the air force with the army, and organize the logistics lines more smoothly, they will be able to overwhelming Ukrainian positions, although I still expect it to be a protracted battle of attrition,” he said.

Vu Hoang (According to AP, BBC)

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