How will domestic gasoline change next week?
Oil prices this week cut a string of two consecutive declines to experience a week of gains on concerns that the EU’s ban on Russian oil imports will affect supply.
Oil prices ended the trading week on a bullish note, with WTI at 107 USD/barrel and WTI at 111.7 USD/barrel. For the whole week, two commodities Brent and WTI gained about 9%.
Oil prices this week cut a string of two consecutive declines to experience a week of gains on concerns that the EU’s ban on Russian oil imports will affect supply.
According to information from the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the energy market witnessed a period of strong volatility in March, with sharp declines and “shocking” gains alternating with each other. Overall, however, prices are still at a high level, with Brent prices always closing above $100 a barrel, except for two single sessions. In the March period, most analysts and investors said that the market will only have a direction to increase. According to some comments, the price of oil can also climb to 150 or 200 USD/barrel.
However, along with a series of new factors, such as the fact that the major oil consuming countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) are working together to open strategic reserves, or the development of the Covid-19 epidemic in China, once again the market struggled to find a new direction. This week, there was a time when the price of Brent oil fell to $98 per barrel, approaching the price range at the end of February, before the Russia-Ukraine conflict took place.
At times like these, it is common for the market to wait for important reports from major energy institutions to look for new clues as to where prices are going. However, unlike previous periods, the April market report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) this time did not include produce consistent forecasts.
In fact, the European Union (EU) is aiming to gradually ban Russian oil, so that Germany and other countries have time to arrange alternative supply.
A gradual ban would force European buyers to “find alternative sources, possibly short-term stockpiling, but in the future it will actually require more supply”.
Traders “remain nervous” as the Russia-Ukraine war continues and countries consider banning Russian oil. The big question is how many people want to enter a short oil position during the extended weekend?
Meanwhile, major global players are planning to limit purchases of crude oil and fuel from Russian state-controlled oil companies in May 2022.
US energy companies this week deployed two more oil rigs, bringing the total number of active oil rigs to 548, the highest since April 2020.
The same day, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that despite signals that global supply will continue to be disrupted, oil inventories in the US increased by more than 9 million barrels last week, partly due to the release of the nation’s strategic reserves. Analysts had previously predicted a rise of only 863,000 barrels.
U.S. gasoline inventories fell 3.6 million barrels last week, much higher than expected, and distillate inventories also fell.
Currently, each liter of gasoline sold is lower than the base price, this is a signal that from now until April 21, if finished petroleum products continue to increase, domestic retail prices will be at risk of increasing.
Domestically, contrary to consumer expectations, both crude oil prices and gasoline prices finished products in the past few days, although the fluctuations increased and decreased from time to time, the general trend was to increase again after consecutive sessions of cooling down.
Show per liter Petroleum The selling price is lower than the base price, this is a signal that from now until April 21, if finished petroleum products still increase, domestic retail prices are at risk of increasing.
According to the General Department of Customs, in March 2022, the country’s petroleum imports were 1.31 million tons with a value of 1.36 billion USD, a sharp increase of 75% in volume and a sharp increase of 114.8 %. in value compared to the previous month. In the first quarter of 2022, the whole country imported 2.66 million tons of petrol and oil with a value of 2.45 billion USD, up 26.8% in volume and sharply up 128.5% in value over the same period. year 2021.
In the first quarter of 2022, imported petroleum mainly came from: Korea with 1.06 million tons, a sharp increase of 107%; Malaysia with 562 thousand tons, down 29.8%; Singapore with 353 thousand tons, up 3.5%… compared to the first quarter of 2021.
On the domestic market, from April 12, the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Finance has adjusted each liter of gasoline to decrease by VND 830 – 840, while kerosene and diesel will decrease by VND 700 – 740.
Petrol price today 17/4: The domestic retail price of gasoline on April 17 is as follows: E5 RON 92 gasoline does not exceed 26,479 VND/liter; gasoline RON 95 not more than 27,313 VND/liter; diesel oil not exceeding 24,380 VND/liter; kerosene oil is not more than 23,024 VND/liter and fuel oil is not more than 20,929 VND/kg.
Oil production from Russia continues to be a mystery
Since the US took the lead in banning oil imports from Russia and the phenomenon of “self-embargo” in the private sector took place, the most interesting information is the actual impact on the Russian energy industry.
The fact that Russian tankers shift schedules from Europe to Asia over long distances makes it difficult to assess the country’s export and production capacity. Last month, when there was not enough data as well as observation time, among the three major energy organizations, only the IEA made the assessment that oil supply from Russia will decrease by about 3 million barrels per day since May. 04/2022.
To the latest report, all 3 organizations have adjusted their assessment. Specifically, OPEC lowered its forecast for Russian production at 531,000 bpd in 2022, while the EIA believes the actual number of declines will fall to 1.7 million bpd from February this year until end of next year.
Meanwhile, the IEA revised its figures with a “modest” forecast of 1.5 million bpd. This time, all three organizations acknowledged that these forecasts were based on large assumptions, due to the constantly changing market. Also based on ship tracking data, Russia’s oil exports are recovering slightly in the first half of April.
at Blogtuan.info – Source: danviet.vn – Read the original article here
