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What do experts say about the new war in eastern Ukraine?

The new battle is said to have begun in eastern Ukraine and analysts military war will be very different from the war around Kyiv in phase 1.

After withdrawing from the area around Kyiv, Russian forces have in recent weeks concentrated in eastern Ukraine to prepare for the second phase of the military operation. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and senior security officials announced on April 18 that the Russian offensive in the Donbass had officially begun, when positions along the front lines were simultaneously attacked.

What do experts say about the new war in eastern Ukraine?  - 1 . photo

Tanks of pro-Russian forces near Mariupol on April 17


Sheet The New York Times According to analysts, Russian forces will operate in a more familiar area and supply lines will be shorter than the battle in Kyiv. With its extensive rail network, Russia can resupply the army more easily than it could in northern Kyiv.

Since the annexation of the peninsula Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, Russia is believed to have supported separatists in the Donbass region in their conflict with the Ukrainian government faction. The conflict has killed more than 14,000 people so far.

Ukraine says Russia has begun the second phase of its military operation in the east

“Russia is operating in very familiar terrain. Russian forces will learn from the mistakes of the early days of the operation in Ukraine, expert Keir Giles at the Center for the Study of Conflict (UK). According to Giles, the dense and extensive railway system in eastern Ukraine will be advantageous for Russia as it leads to areas under the control of Russia and the separatists.

“This will be a large-scale battle with hundreds of tanks and combat vehicles. It would be extremely devastating. The scope of the military campaign will be vastly different from previous regions,” said researcher Franz-Stefan Gady of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (UK).

What do experts say about the new war in eastern Ukraine?  - 2 . photo

Ukrainian tanks in Donetsk on April 18


However, besides the advantages, Russian forces will also face a number of challenges in eastern Ukraine.

Expert Frederick W. Kagan, Project Director of Critical Threats at the Institute Enterprise The US, commented that the Russian forces fighting around Kyiv had suffered a lot of damage and had difficulty in re-consolidating for the eastern campaign, in addition to the morale of soldiers.

“Normally an army would take months to rebuild, but the Russians seem to be driving them into this war. The deployed Russian forces have suffered a lot of damage and morale seems low,” Kagan said.

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In addition, the expert said that spring rains will turn the terrain in the east into mud, affecting the mobility of Russian forces. As a result, they were forced to use land routes, risking being attacked by Ukraine with anti-tank missiles provided by the West. Besides, the road system in the east is said to be not as good as around Kyiv, so having a lot of vehicles will be a challenge.

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