The case of Mr. Trinh Van Quyet and Tan Hoang Minh is “not terrible”, a “hot” forecast about the stock market

That is the opinion of Dr. Le Xuan Nghia – economist at the seminar: “Contributing to the healthyization of Vietnam’s stock market” on April 20.

The case of Mr. Trinh Van Quyet or Tan Hoang Minh “is not terrible”

Dr. Le Xuan Nghia said that from 2008 to now, most of the world’s stock market (stock market) has developed hot, despite the risks from hundreds of years earlier.

In the past 100 years, the Dow Jones has only gone up and down more than 1,000 points five times. Every time this happens, the stock market collapses, but in the past 5 years, this situation has happened more than 10 times and the market has kept moving forward, not collapsing.

Similarly, in the past 100 years, every time a long-term bond has a lower interest rate than a short-term bond, causing the risk of a reversal of the principal interest rate, the stock market often collapses, but within 5 years from 2008 to now, there have been Four times like that, the stock market still hasn’t collapsed.

Therefore, the cases on the Vietnamese stock market, the latest being the case of Mr. Trinh Van Quyet or the case at Tan Hoang Minh, Mr. Nghia said that “is not terrible”.

Citing more views from American researchers, Mr. Nghia said: “We are living in an era of chaos, chaos is normal. In other words, we are living in an era of change. terrible and we have to get used to it.”

Therefore, global uncertainties such as the Covid-19 epidemic or the Russia-Ukraine conflict and fluctuations in the Vietnamese market, such as the recent prosecution of a series of business leaders, will also react. refers to international and Vietnamese stock markets, but investors have gradually gotten used to it.

Since then, Mr. Nghia still believes that the Vietnamese stock market will continue to advance along with the growth momentum of the world market.

Why is it difficult for the stock market to “collapse”?

The basis of belief that Vietnam’s stock market is unlikely to “collapse” and will continue to move forward along with the growth momentum of the world market. tissue is quite stable.

“This is an extremely important fulcrum for the stock market. The market will still have great potential if the economy recovers at a fast and strong speed, especially in the processing and manufacturing industries.” Dr. Le Xuan Nghia analyzed.

Second, Vietnam’s macro indicators are generally stable. “Some international organizations think that Vietnam’s inflation rate in 2022 will be at 5-6%, but in our opinion, this year’s inflation will be kept below 5%,” Dr. . Le Xuan Nghia said.

Third, the proportion of population investing in securities of Vietnam is still very low, only about 4%, lower than many countries in the world and in the region. Meanwhile, Vietnamese people are “quite fond” of risky investment markets such as stocks.

According to Mr. Nghia, rumors about businesses on the stock market, this is an indispensable part of the market. Whenever there are negative events such as the “election” of Kien or Mr. Tran Bac Ha before, it will have a terrible impact on the stock market. This time, the impact of that kind, much less severe, did not turn out to be a shock like previous events.

“This shows that the market size has become larger, the tolerance is greater, and investors have also gotten used to it and have more courage,” said Dr. Meaning to say.

In Korea, the Chairman of Samsung Group or Daewoo is arrested but the business is still operating normally, the business is still growing. In Vietnam, this is not the case, but in the future, the market will gradually operate according to that rule – according to Dr. Le Xuan Nghia.