High anchor, unexpectedly predicting an increase in domestic gasoline prices

Petrol price today 4/21: “Anchor” over 100 USD/barrel, how much will domestic petrol price increase?

The price of US WTI light sweet crude oil fell 0.27% to $102.17 per barrel at 6:30 am (Vietnam time) on April 21. While the price of Brent crude oil for June delivery fell 0.02% to 107.23 USD/barrel.

Crude oil prices were almost unchanged on Wednesday (April 20), as investors assessed the impact of growing concerns about economic growth as well as slowing oil demand with the tightening of the global economy. global supply.

According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, about 60% of the world’s oil is used for travel and transportation purposes, over 20% is used as input materials for industry or energy for the manufacturing industry. export. Therefore, in fact, travel demand is always considered the most important factor affecting oil consumption.

However, given the nature of the oil and gas industry that it is difficult to store oil in large quantities, and with a general trend of upward consumption over many years, an unexpected drop in demand could trigger a reaction. big to the price.

This reaction can be seen clearly after the period of the world economic crisis in 2008. Although the total world oil consumption decreased by only about 0.8 million barrels per day, or about 1% of the annual consumption demand. However, concerns about storage and production costs have pushed supply to react more strongly and reduce world oil production by 1 million barrels per day. This pulled the oil price at the peak of nearly 150 USD/barrel to drop to the 40 USD/barrel mark.

Meanwhile, in the same period, world GDP growth only decreased by 1.66%, according to World Bank data. This explains why the IMF cut its world growth forecast for the second time this year, creating a strong reaction in the energy market, as concerns about the “demand-destroying” price range once again increased. on the market.

However, the reality is that currently the IMF still expects the world’s GDP growth in the next 2 years, so the market will have momentum to recover.

Technically, the indicators are relatively positive and the price is receiving technical buying at the zone of $102-103 per barrel. The next resistance is quite far from the zone of 105 USD/barrel. Therefore, we can watch to buy when the price corrects to the area of ​​103 USD/barrel and expect the price to increase 1-1.5 USD/barrel.

Domestically, according to data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the average price of finished gasoline on the Singapore market was updated to April 14 with RON 92 being $114.59 a barrel, RON 95 being $126.13 a barrel, an increase. compared with the previous adjustment.

However, the increase depends on the operator’s use of the stabilization fund (BOG). In case the BOG fund is not used, the price of gasoline may increase from 800 to 1,000 VND/liter depending on the type. If the operator deducts or uses the Stabilization Fund, gasoline prices will increase around 500-700 VND/liter.

Petrol price today 4/21: The domestic retail price of gasoline on April 21 is as follows: E5 RON 92 gasoline does not exceed VND 26,479/liter; gasoline RON 95 not more than 27,313 VND/liter; diesel oil not exceeding 24,380 VND/liter; kerosene oil is not more than 23,024 VND/liter and fuel oil is not more than 20,929 VND/kg.