Analysis of 2 months of Russian-Ukrainian hostilities: Battle of Donbass and decisive leverage

As Russian forces prepare for an offensive in eastern Ukraine that both sides say will determine the course of the war, the prospect of peace talks aimed at ending Europe’s biggest humanitarian disaster has grown. Europe since 1945 is paler than ever, commented veteran journalist Mark Episkopos of the National Interest.

The Russian military has made its goals clear as the war in Ukraine enters its second phase. “Since the beginning of the second phase of the special operation, which began two days ago, one of the tasks of the Russian military has been to establish full control of the Donbass and southern Ukraine. This will provide a land corridor for Crimea,” Major General Rustam Minnekaev, acting commander of Russia’s Central Military District, said on Friday, April 22, according to state news agency TASS.

Minnekaev’s announcement appeared to challenge previous assessments by Ukraine and the West that the upcoming Russian offensive would be limited to the Donbass regions, where Russian troops have short, safe supply lines and more favorable battlefield terrain.

It remains unclear whether Russia intends to take full control of the key port hub southwest of Odessa or through proxy state arrangements like the Russian-aligned separatist Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. DPR and LPR), nor has the Kremlin disclosed its plans for the Ukrainian territories Russia already controls.

Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov stated in an interview with Ukrayinska Pravda that there would be no “Kherson People’s Republic”, referring to the occupied southern city of Kherson. According to recent reports, Russian politicians are planning to annex Kherson to Russia by holding a referendum like Crimea in 2014.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on April 15 that Moscow submitted a peace proposal to Kiev on April 15, but has not yet received a response from the Ukrainian side. She added: “Russia never refused to negotiate. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov echoed Ms. Zakharova’s comments: “At this point, the Ukrainian side has received our draft text, which includes correctly constructed points. The ball is in their court. We are waiting for an answer.

On April 20, adviser to the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak confirmed that Ukraine had received Russian proposals and would study them in the coming days.

Although Ukraine has not officially responded, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov expressed pessimism about the possibility of a peace agreement. “War can return at any time. I don’t believe in any peace treaty with the Russian Federation. History shows, we have experienced this many times. They constantly violate the rules. peace agreement,” Danilov accused Russia on April 22.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned this week that Russia-Ukraine peace talks would end because of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s lack of goodwill. Mr. Johnson told reporters: “It’s very difficult to see how the Ukrainians can negotiate with Putin when he shows a lack of goodwill. That’s the difficulty the Ukrainians face. We have to keep fighting. strategy, continue to supply them with weapons”.

Both Moscow and Kiev believe that the upcoming battles in the Donbass and the south of the country will be decisive for the outcome of the war.

“For us, the battle for the Donbass is very important. It is important for different reasons, first of all for safety reasons. Our team located in Donbass is one of the best troops that we have. we have. It’s a large group and Russia wants to surround and destroy them,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an earlier interview, adding that the upcoming battles “may affect them.” to the course of the entire war”.

If Ukraine can inflict a major defeat on Russian forces in the Donbass region, the Kremlin will be significantly limited with its options to continue this war. In that case, two of the war’s original goals—regime change in Kiev and the destruction of Ukraine’s military power—are virtually unattainable.

But if the Russian military is able to successfully isolate the eastern Ukrainian troops, then Moscow will neutralize a large part of the trained armed units of Ukraine. As noted by Daniel Davis, a retired Lieutenant Colonel and senior member of Defense Priorities, there will be little to stop the Russians from consolidating control over the vast Donbass and moving forward with an invasion. Besieged Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city. A decisive victory in the Donbass would put Russian forces in a position to attack in the direction of Odessa and eventually back into the Kiev area.

The Kremlin’s schedule for the war in Ukraine is being driven by strong domestic consideration: Western military officials say Moscow is racing to produce major battlefield victories by May 9. 5, which is the anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

With both sides seemingly trying to gain greater leverage, peace talks are unlikely to be the key cards until the Battle for Donbass is decided.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Friday called on the West to increase the “realistic” possibility that Russia could win the war, describing the situation in practice as “unpredictable.” As the Ukraine war entered its second month, Johnson’s announcement marked the first public admission by a Western leader that Russia could prevail.

So far NATO’s focus has been on coordinating an unprecedented arms transfer program to help Ukraine repel and possibly defeat Russian forces.

It remains to be seen whether the main NATO members will seek to adjust their approach if the Kremlin achieves significant battlefield gains in the eastern regions of Ukraine in the coming weeks.