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French Presidential Election- Forecasts ahead of time

“Rematch” between 2 opponents

Today, voters in France will go to the polls to elect the President of France for the term 2022-2027. Two faces for them to choose from are the same as in the 2017 French presidential election: Mr. Emmanuel Macron – now the outgoing President and Ms. Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally party.

Emmanuel Macron – a centrist – now wants to become the first French president to hold two consecutive terms in the past 20 years. Marine Le Pen, who is a far-right, wants to reverse the scenario five years ago, to become the first female President of France.

Polls show incumbent President Emmanuel Macron have the edge in this second round race. But Le Pen’s far-right party has never come this close to power. That’s why today’s race will be intense from start to finish.

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The two candidates debated on television. Photo: Reuters

The difference of the French presidential election 2022

From the outset, the 2022 French presidential election took place under unusual conditions. The shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic covers political, economic and social life. The Russian-Ukrainian military conflict has shaken European and French politics.

Those factors leave candidates with very little time to interact with voters before the first round of the election took place on April 10.

It is worth noting that after 2 years of experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic and currently being more or less affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the French voters’ attention to environmental issues, anti-corruption climate change… has decreased significantly.

This is a big difference from the local and European elections of the past few years in France. This shows that French voters are more and more concerned about what is happening in the present, about daily life, about short-term priorities, instead of focusing their attention on issues that are important to them. macro and long-term.

Similarly, foreign affairs topics were largely absent from the candidates’ campaigns, with the exception of discussions related to the conflict in Ukraine. Discussions about Europe, immigration policy, French identity… were rarely mentioned, different from the atmosphere of 5 years ago.

Financial institutions forecast the results of the French presidential election 2022

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Many world financial institutions are predicting the outcome and impact of the 2022 French presidential election. Photo: Reuters

CNBC had an article analyzing the French Presidential election from the perspective and prediction of some big banks. On the final day of campaigning ahead of the second round of voting, polls had shown incumbent French President Macron 57.5 percent ahead of candidate Le Pen’s 42.5 percent.

Goldman Sachs predicts a 90% chance of Mr Macron winning. Meanwhile, Citigroup thinks the probability of Mr. Macron winning is less, only 65%.

Indeed, the Wall Street bank said Ms Le Pen’s chances of winning are now “significantly higher than they were in 2017”. This victory could cause the French stock market to plunge and the banks of this country will be the hardest hit. The euro will also come under pressure from Ms Le Pen’s win, potentially falling to 1.065 against the US dollar. On the other hand, if Mr Macron wins it will bring a “gentle flourish”.

CNN Business commented that in the event of votes in favor of the female candidate, Le Pen’s victory could have a much larger impact on financial markets than Britain’s exit from the European Union. Brexit) or Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 US presidential election.

Amundi, a French wealth management expert, told CNN Business that banks have been advising clients that they shouldn’t buy shares in Europe right now for three reasons: conflict, real estate economic stability and French election.

Mr. Claeys, an analyst at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels, Belgium, said: “Although leaving the EU is not in the official debate, with the policies that Ms. Le Pen wants to introduce, it is. would lead to a confrontation between France and its European partners in the event that she wins the election.”

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Based on the first round of elections, more than 20% of French people will vote or abstain because they do not see any convincing candidate. Photo: AFP

Election 2022: A referendum on the value of leadership in France and on Europe

The number one topic of interest in this election is the rising cost of living – from electricity bills to food to gas. This was exploited early on by Ms. Le Pen’s campaign team, with the promise that a government of national unity would “attack” the escalating price situation. Ms. Le Pen pledged to take measures to reduce people’s living costs. She affirmed that she would do better than incumbent President Macron to improve lives, enhance the value of jobs and boost the purchasing power of the people.

Meanwhile, President Macron said that the policy of improving people’s lives will be realized through major projects in education and health. He asserted that the measures he proposed would help improve the income of French households more effectively than Ms. Le Pen’s policy and that France would become an ecological power in the 21st century.

This leader also pledged not to raise taxes and will increase the retirement age by 4 months each year, ie employees can work until 65 years old. He emphasized the achievement of reducing the unemployment rate to the lowest level in the past 13 years. Opposing this view, Ms. Le Pen defended the retirement age policy of 60 years.

The two French presidential candidates also show big differences on migration issues. As with her 2017 election campaign, Ms Le Pen stressed the need to hold a referendum on the reception of migrants and the need to tackle the current migration situation, which she described as “chaotic”. For his part, Mr. Macron said that a referendum would change nothing and that this issue depends on cooperation with other countries.

Regarding relations with the European Union (EU), Ms. Le Pen has softer software when asserting that she still wants France to be a member, but needs to reform the EU and the European Commission to respect the sovereignty of other countries. family. She emphasized that France is a world power, not just a European power. Meanwhile, Mr. Macron upheld the spirit of cooperation within the EU, which is evident in the allocation of preventive vaccines COVID-19 in European countries. He said Ms Le Pen’s idea of ​​”a Europe of nations” meant the end of the European Union (EU).

Le Pen’s message to voters was “Either Macron or France”. Mr Macron’s message was, “This election is a referendum on secularism and on Europe”, implying a ban on headscarves in public following Le Pen’s idea.

Different views on the Russia-Ukraine issue

The contrast between the two French presidential candidates is also reflected in the Russia-Ukraine issue. Le Pen expressed support for sanctions against Russia related to the military campaign in Ukraine, but she opposed the imposition of restrictions on Russian energy and gas imports. According to this far-right party candidate, stopping gas imports from Russia will not affect Moscow and will only have a heavy impact on the French people.

Scenario if win

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The ballots have been prepared. Photo: Euronews

If Mr. Macron wins, he will continue the centrist, pro-European approach he took during his first term. According to The Local, his campaign team even booked a place in Champ-de-Mars – a prime location right next to the Eiffel Tower so that Mr. Macron could speak if he was elected.

On the contrary, if Mrs. Le Pen is the next owner of the Elysée Palace, a power transition will put France on a new path, with new policies according to her campaign views.

France’s position on the political scene in the next five years will depend entirely on the votes cast in a few hours. The outcome is still a mystery!

References: CNN Business, CNBC, The Local, France24, Reuters, AFP.

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