The number of winners and losers hidden after 2 months of war in Ukraine

Reuters quoted Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych on April 23, saying that Russian forces had resumed air strikes and tried to enter the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol. This is one of the strategic positions that Moscow is looking to quickly control.

A corner of the port city of Mariupol – where Russia is besieged Reuters

Ukraine’s situation

Regarding the war situation in Ukraine, TASS news agency quoted Major General Rustam Minnekaev, acting commander of the Central Military District (CVO) of Russia, on April 22, revealing if the region is controlled. Donbass “will allow us to establish a ground corridor to Crimea and gain influence over Ukraine’s extremely important (military) facilities, the Black Sea ports, which serve the transportation of products agriculture and metallurgy for other countries”.

In fact, if Russia controls the entire Donbass region, not only will Russia create a land corridor extending to the Crimean peninsula, but it can also form a pincer position to return to attack Kyiv. Once commented in an interview with Thanh Nien, an expert who is a former US defense intelligence officer predicted that if Russia had complete control of Mariupol (located in the Donbass – NV region), it would not only form a belt to Crimea, but also can easily attack to control Odessa and then create a pincer position aimed at Kyiv from two axes.

Besides, the control of Mariupol is also a heavy blow to Ukraine’s economy. According to GMK Center – a research and consulting agency specializing in ore and metal mining based in Kyiv, two steel plants, Azovstal and Ilyich in Mariupol, account for about 40% of pig iron exports, nearly 100% of production. export volume of steel plates and a large proportion of Ukraine’s exports of many iron and steel products. Meanwhile, Ukraine accounts for 34% of the European Union’s (EU) plate market by 2021. In addition, the control of the Donbass region makes Kyiv almost lose most of the port system on the Sea of ​​Azov which is gateway for Ukraine to export many agricultural products that play a key role in the agricultural sector.

So, in the context of Ukraine’s economy being seriously hurt – according to World Bank (WB) at the beginning of April forecasted a decrease of 45.1% this year, if completely losing control over the Donbass region, this country’s economy will be affected in the long run. Therefore, the defense in this area is extremely important for Ukraine not only in the current war but also in the future.

Map of the war in Ukraine to April 21 BBC

Success or failure in Russia’s strategy

On the other hand, although Ukraine is facing such a difficult situation, it does not mean that Russia is successful.

Speaking on February 24 to announce the implementation of a military operation against Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the operation was aimed at “mutual assistance”.Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Luhansk People’s Republic”. These are two regions located in the separatist Donbass region – recognized by Moscow. In addition, in the same speech, President Putin also set out the goal of “demilitarizing and de-fascist Ukraine, as well as bringing to justice those who have committed many bloody crimes against civilians, including citizens of the Russian Federation”. Earlier, Moscow criticized the Kyiv government for pursuing policy fascist. Therefore, President Putin’s above statement, although affirming that he does not occupy Ukraine, can still make others think about the goal of regime change in Kyiv, not just demilitarization of Ukraine.

In fact, after 2 months of hostilities, from organizing a large-scale offensive and once trying to besiege Kyiv and many areas in Ukraine, Russia is now said to be moving into a phase of concentrated attacks. into the southern and northeastern regions of Ukraine. Meanwhile, despite facing a difficult situation, the Kyiv government still shows no sign of backing down. The capital of Ukraine, Kyiv, has recently received visiting leaders of many countries.

In addition, the Ukrainian side announced that 7-8 Russian generals and many senior commanding officers were killed on the front. In addition, through international media and social networkKyiv also reported many pictures of Russian weapons, including self-propelled artillery, tanks, missile launchers … destroyed by the Ukrainian side.

However, in addition to publishing data on destroyed enemy weapons, Russia has very little accurate information about its losses on the battlefield, nor does it deny much relevant information given by Ukraine. On a rare occasion, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia had suffered “significant losses” since the launch of the military operation in Ukraine, according to Sky News on April 4, citing Peskov. In addition, the city government of St.Petersburg on April 16 announced the farewell ceremony for the Deputy Commander of the 8th Army of Russia, Major General Vladimir Frolov, at the Serafimovskoe cemetery. This is also the rare time that the Moscow side has information about the general having trouble in Ukraine.

In addition to military losses, a series of Western sanctions against Russia are considered to be causing great difficulties for this country. While oil prices is at a high level, Russian officials have informed that they are ready to reduce prices for some partners.

It seems that the consequences that Moscow is facing may be long-lasting. It is no coincidence that Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said many NATO countries are looking for a prolonged war in Ukraine to weaken Russia, CNN reported on April 20.