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Warning from the German Central Bank

Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, warned on April 22 that a complete embargo on energy purchases Russia could reduce Germany’s projected GDP growth by about 5% this year.

Accordingly, Germany’s Bundesbank said such an embargo could hinder the country’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic with the risk of pushing Europe’s largest economy back into recession. serious recession.

Yahoo News quoted a warning from the Bundesbank as saying that Germany could cost up to 180 billion euros ($195 billion) if it stopped importing Russian oil, gas and coal – a much larger number than estimated. earlier by some German economists.

This prospect of damage is the reason why German Chancellor Olaf Scholz repeatedly rejected Russian energy sanctions proposed by the European Union (EU). Chancellor Scholz cited the fact that Germany does not yet have an immediate alternative to Russian energy supplies, especially natural gas.

It is known that Germany’s chemical industry, which is the largest user of natural gas, will be particularly severely affected if the country stops importing Russian gas (which is relatively cheap compared to other sources).

Germany’s attitude has drawn fierce criticism from EU allies and from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Since Russia launched what it calls a “special operation” in its neighbour, Germany has more than halved its gas imports and more than 25% of its oil imports from Russia.

According to Yahoo News, the Bundesbank also warned that the need to find alternative energy sources will cause inflation to soar, adding more than 1.5 percentage points to the consumer price index this year and more than 2 percentage points to the consumer price index. year 2023.

However, the Bundesbank also said that these forecasts will be subject to change based on the actual situation and developments.

In a related development, the German chancellor on April 22 also explained why Germany does not support a complete embargo on Russian gas. Accordingly, Mr. Scholz said that the Russian gas ban would not be able to end the conflict but could cause an economic crisis in Germany and the EU.

“We want to avoid a scenario where a severe economic crisis will result in the loss of millions of jobs and the permanent closure of factories. That would have dire consequences for Germany and the whole of Europe. Germany can’t let that happen”, Mr. Scholz stressed that the embargo would even have “global consequences”.


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