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China wants to mend with Central and Eastern European countries

China wants to mend with Central and Eastern European countries - Photo 1.

The China-CEEC summit in 2021 will take place online – Photo: MERICS

These countries – located close to the border and once sharing history with both Russia and Ukraine – now feel their security is under serious threat from Russia. CEEC is disappointed that China has not voiced its support for Ukraine, and fears it may meet the same fate as Ukraine in the future.

Important role of CEEC

China does not want to sacrifice its relationship with CEEC because of its diplomatic stance on the conflict in Ukraine. A Chinese delegation led by veteran diplomat Huo Yuzhen visited eight CEEC countries including: Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia and Poland last week.

The China-CEEC partnership is facing huge challenges. Beijing claims to maintain normal economic relations with Moscow despite the imposition of economic sanctions by other countries, while a number of CEEC countries are now the gateway for the West to deliver weapons and aid. to the administration of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Ms. Huo’s diplomatic mission is expected by the Chinese government to explain China’s position on the Ukraine conflict issue, refute misinformation and clarify misunderstandings that China believes are brought about by the West. again.

However, the bigger ambition is for China to put a foot in the “back door” of the European Union (EU) to create a group of China-friendly countries right in the heart of Europe. The problem is that this mechanism is currently in turmoil as CEEC countries are losing confidence in China.

Most of the CEEC countries are members of the EU and the North Atlantic military bloc (NATO). Although they do not have much of an economic say, these countries play a role in important EU and NATO votes that operate by consensus.

A no vote from a CEEC country in European multilateral institutions could render the votes null and void. The government of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has often been seen as friendly to China, and Budapest has blocked EU statements on Hong Kong.

2022 also marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of a cooperation mechanism between China and 16 CEEC countries (16+1). The mechanism was established in 2012 in Budapest to promote China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and strengthen cooperation in the fields of infrastructure, transportation and logistics, and trade. and investment of “16+1”.

Risk of breakdown

Over the past decade, China has increased its economic and political influence in Central and Eastern Europe through its BRI initiative with investments aimed at boosting bilateral trade and local infrastructure, as well as as the major market for the goods of the CEEC countries.

However, in the past two years, China’s prestige has declined after the COVID-19 pandemic that started in China has made the foreign policy of the CEEC countries more towards Europe.

The China-Russia “unlimited” relationship in the context of CEEC countries’ criticism of Russia in the Ukraine conflict is seen as a catalyst for CEEC’s foreign policy to move away from China. This may make the collapse of the China-CEEC (16+1) multilateral cooperation mechanism closer and closer.

In addition, China’s economic attractiveness is not what it used to be. Projects of the BRI initiative did not bring the expected benefits.

Therefore, in addition to the objective of informing China’s position, another objective of the Chinese delegation was to avoid the CEEC countries no longer feeling the benefits in their relationship with China and create a positive trigger. downgrading the bilateral relationship, influencing the one-China policy.

In 2021, Lithuania left the China-CEEC cooperation mechanism and upgraded its relationship with Taiwan. Another possible case is the Czech Republic. When President Miloš Zeman, who has close ties to Beijing, retires later this year, the Prague government is likely to make a similar move to Lithuania and rename the Taipei office in Prague to ” Taiwan”. The Czech Republic is a much larger economy than Lithuania.

In general, Ms. Hoac Ngoc Tran’s trip to 8 countries in a short time is difficult to bring about the expected results when the Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for 2 months. The information battle is not only based on Ms. Hoac Ngoc Tran’s old relationships in Europe, but it is also based on what happens on the ground as well as the feelings of countries adjacent to Russia – Ukraine.

Diplomats combine scholars

China’s purpose is clearly visible in the composition of the diplomatic corps. Ms. Hoac Ngoc Tran (leader of the delegation) is very knowledgeable about Eastern Europe, having worked as an ambassador to the Czech Republic from 2006 – 2010 and Romania from 2011 – 2015.

In addition, Professor Liu Zuocui, senior research fellow in European studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), also joined the delegation, leading the academic group.

The Chinese government wants to use people with deep knowledge of CEEC to influence not only the political circles but also the academic circles in the host countries to regain their footing in the information war about China’s views. for Russia and Ukraine.

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