The CEO of HSBC Vietnam points out 6 global trends that will shape the future of the country

1. Climate change

Climate change is both a challenge and an opportunity for a country like Vietnam. The Asian region, especially the Mekong Delta region, is currently at the forefront of climate change. According to the General Director of HSBC Vietnam, without strong action, by 2050, Asia may face the risk of GDP loss from 2.8 trillion USD to 4.7 trillion USD, accounting for more than 2/ 3 loss of GDP globally due to climate change impacts.

Specifically, the World Bank warns that Vietnam is one of the five countries most severely affected by climate change. The negative impact of climate change will reduce Vietnam’s national income by 3.5% of GDP by 2050.

Building a climate-friendly, low-carbon economy and society will require global capital, initiative and commitment to shared goals. Mr. Tim Evans assessed that, although responding to climate change is a big challenge, it also comes with a big opportunity.

Sectors such as information technology, biomedicine, new materials and new energy are becoming new, more sustainable drivers of economic growth.

Vietnam will need to make more efforts to reduce dependence on coal as a source of electricity generation and export. Coal power currently accounts for about one-third of the country’s electricity production. The government recently pledged to reduce the share of coal power system-wide to less than 10% by 2045 and develop the renewable energy sector to increase its share to more than 50% from the current 12%.

2. Digitization

The pandemic has accelerated the transition to an uninterrupted digital society and has stimulated changes in consumer behavior that are not only transient, but are likely to bring significant consequences. to long-term impact.

The wave of digital transformation will continue to drive the level of technology application in industries, especially teleworking, healthcare, education, entertainment and financial services, in addition to reducing transaction costs, support participation in global value chains and improve market entry and access.

One of the major effects of the digital revolution is leveling the playing field globally, allowing countries like Vietnam to compete with more advanced economies. Businesses like VNG, MoMo and VNPay, the unicorns of Vietnam, are all able to compete in the international arena.

Mr. Tim shared that if Vietnam wants to extend that success, Vietnam needs to continue to invest in education and accessibility to build a developed digital ecosystem to promote creativity.

In the context of digital transformation, information security and privacy are issues that need attention, especially when the virtual universe (metaverse) is growing and growing. Vietnam needs to cooperate regionally and globally to provide a unified data policy and direction.

  The General Director of HSBC Vietnam points out 6 global trends that will shape the country's future - Photo 1.

Mr. Tim Evans – General Director of HSBC Vietnam

3. Vaccination equality

According to the General Director of HSBC Vietnam, Covid-19 is a reminder that the pandemic spares no one.

The report forecasts that countries that have not reached 60% of the population immunized by mid-2022 will experience a GDP loss of about $2.3 billion by 2025. Emerging economies will bear two-thirds of the total loss. This further widens the economic disparity with advanced economies.

Mr. Tim said that Vietnam is a shining example in this regard. Nearly 80% of the population has received at least two doses of the Covid-19 vaccine, one of the countries with the highest vaccine coverage in the world.

The Ministry of Health has set a target to complete the vaccination campaign for children aged 5 to 11 in the second quarter of this year. This must be said to be an important achievement of Vietnam if considering the context of 12 months ago.

“We must strengthen global cooperation in research, development, production, raw material supply, distribution, transportation, storage, intellectual property exemption in the issue of vaccines to help The country is struggling to compete with rich countries to get vaccines and medical supplies at an appropriate cost, “said Mr. Tim.

4. Trade

According to Tim Evans, Covid-19 continues to cause disruptions to global supply chains, but commercial activities are still the shortest and most direct path to economic growth.

Up to now, Vietnam has joined 15 free trade agreements (FTAs) of which the most recent is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) which has officially taken effect since the beginning of this year. The country has become one of the most open economies in the world. These FTAs ​​are expected to play an important role in promoting Vietnam’s economic development this year.

Since March 15, Vietnam has fully opened up to international tourism and travel, and the Vietnamese government wants to ensure the country regains its pre-pandemic growth rate. This strategic goal can be achieved with the support of FTAs ​​as well as bilateral agreements signed by Vietnam.

These agreements will obviously open up many opportunities for Vietnamese businesses and come with challenges as the country will need to carry out more domestic reforms to maintain its competitive position.

Besides, Vietnam will need to continue working with other Asian countries to facilitate investment flows in the region as well as remove non-tax barriers so that the whole region can maximize commercial potential.

5. Geopolitics

Regarding geopolitics, Mr. Tim said that the conflict in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions in other parts of the world will continue to create unwanted instability in the global economy. In the context of international turmoil, Vietnam’s open attitude and consistent stance on settling international disputes by peaceful means on the basis of international law is a respectable opinion. .

Normally, every time there is instability, countries will tend to shrink and turn inward, which is natural, but the big problems of the whole world such as climate change, epidemics and inflation can only be resolved in the spirit of extensive cooperation.

6. Inequality and inclusive recovery

Finally, with the issue of inequality, the General Director of HSBC Vietnam said that the impact of the pandemic is extremely large. It is the poorest and most vulnerable communities that are hardest hit by Covid-19, millions of people pushed into poverty and deepening inequality.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates that the pandemic has forced an estimated 75-80 million people in Asia into extreme poverty since 2020. Progress in hunger eradication and improvement of health and education conditions has also been hampered. thwarts, despite the significant progress that has been made in the past on these activities across the region, although the results have not been uniformly distributed.

Tim Evans advised that it is necessary to quickly recognize and address the significant impacts of Covid-19 on poverty and inequality. It is urgent for low-income developing countries to get a vaccine and get the support they need to recover.

This is also an opportunity to build community resilience to mitigate the impact of natural disasters as well as prevent other crises in the future. This could mean increasing investment in health and education, creating a fair and competitive labor market, and improving access to financial services and technology. chn

According to Anh Tuan

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