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Re-elected French president, did Mr. Macron push for sanctions against Russia and the export of heavy weapons to Ukraine?

Re-elected French President, how will Mr. Macron's stance towards Russia change?  - Photo 1.

Mr. Macron (centre) held regular talks with Mr. Zelensky (left) and Mr. Putin (right) during the war. Photo: EPA

In the run-up to the presidential elections held earlier this month, Mr. Macron has maintained a conciliatory tone, meeting regularly with the presidents of both sides – Volodymyr Zelenksy of Ukraine and Vladimir Putin of Ukraine. Russia.

While not yet successful in conciliation, these actions still give Mr. Macron an advantage. He won 58.6% of support, compared with 41.5% for Marine Le Pen from the far-right, his main political rival, who previously had close ties to Mr. Putin.

Samuel Ramani, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said he was confident that in the near future Mr Macron would translate his statements into action – as well as double down on foreign efforts. assigned to Russia.

He predicted to Al Jazeera: “Now that Ms. Le Pen has lost, Mr. Macron will push for a complete energy embargo, because he has said that France is not dependent on Russian gas.”

The French president will also “continue new aid projects based on the recent delivery of heavy artillery to Ukraine and the $106 million worth of weapons sent in the first two months of the war.”

With no election pressure left, Mr. Macron “will have more freedom in his diplomacy with Putin, besides being able to come up with tougher policies towards Russia”, Ramani added.

Since France currently holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU), Mr. Macron’s re-election could also strengthen NATO and the EU’s position against Russia.

Pierluigi Paganini, an intelligence and cyber security expert in Italy, said: “Macron supports EU integration and is one of the main sponsors of the common defense strategy, and the current conflict is a test. important to his vision”.

“Mr Macron has always maintained the autonomy of the EU, and declared that its activities must complement NATO’s territorial defense process,” he added.

Delicately balanced

Mr. Macron met Putin at the Kremlin in early February 2022, before the military operation in Ukraine began.

Since then, he has been in regular contact with the Russian president, holding hour-long talks, but has not been able to change the course of the war.

Josephine Staron, international relations director at Paris-based Synopia, said Mr Macron would not stop talks with Mr Putin unless there was a major escalation in the conflict.

“Contrary to other countries, Mr. Macron was more careful and didn’t offend Putin in the way that US President Joe Biden did,” she said.

The geographical proximity is one reason why France is cautious. Besides, the fact that a nuclear power is engaged in dialogue with Russia – also a nuclear member – is another reason.

“If France says that Mr. Putin has crossed a red line, what does that mean for France as a nuclear power? What will be the next step?”, asked Ms. Staron.

Re-elected French President, how will Mr. Macron's stance towards Russia change?  - Photo 2.

French President Emmanuel Macron (right) meets his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow on February 7, 2022, for talks aimed at finding a solution to Ukraine and NATO. Photo: AFP

With a tougher stance towards Russia amid protracted hostilities and expansion into neighboring regions, many EU countries and Washington are sending more weapons to Ukraine.

On April 26, Germany gave the green light to the delivery of armored vehicles equipped with anti-aircraft guns. And last week, days before winning the election, Mr. Macron said France was sending heavy artillery weapons – Caesar cannons, Milan anti-tank missiles, and thousands of artillery shells – to Ukraine.

Ms. Staron warned that EU support for President Zelensky could be interpreted by President Putin as “inciting a skirmish”, and said the bloc should be cautious, especially after comments by Mr. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on April 25 about the conflict that could escalate into a third world war.

“There are two solutions,” she said. “Totally neutral or helping Ukraine, but it seems France will choose a solution that neutralizes both. It’s a delicate balance!”

Oil and gas embargoes

Many fear rising tensions if surrounding countries are forced to join the conflict, such as the recent alleged bombing of the Russian-backed Transnistria region in Moldova.

The US previously warned that Russian forces could conduct “false flag” operations to create an excuse to launch military operations in other countries – an allegation later denied by Moscow.

If the conflict widens, the EU may eventually have to accept what Mr. Zelenksy has been asking for for months: An oil embargo.

On April 27, a dispute over gas flared up when Russia’s Gazprom cut supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, saying the two countries had failed to pay in rubles – a move Moscow demanded after punished by the West.

Although France is much less dependent on gas from Russia than other European countries, the closure of energy pipelines will also have significant consequences for this country.

Moreover, the consequences of the oil embargo are likely to trigger a recession in Europe, Paganini said.

He said: “Although the US, EU, UK and other countries have sanctioned Russia, Russia’s export revenue since the start of the campaign has not decreased. Even if European governments agree to stop Russia’s coal imports starting from August 2022 will not be enough. Oil prices will increase on a global scale.”

Using alternative oil supplies from the Middle East and Africa will take a long time, he added, thus forcing European countries to adopt “austerity” energy policies.

Given these risks, it is difficult for the EU to reach an overall agreement on such embargoes, especially as some countries could be hit hard.

“France’s oil and gas embargo would be an important step towards isolating Russia, but as long as other great powers like Germany and Italy waver and smaller countries, like Hungary, can’t stand the embargo. In this case, EU consensus is almost impossible,” said Ramani.

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