New war in Europe

Start a new war

This war officially started with Russia’s decision to stop supplying gas to Poland and Bulgaria even though the previously signed supply contract is still valid until the end of this year. Previously, there were developments signaling the occurrence of this new war scenario.

Among the policy measures that the US, EU and its allies have applied to sanction Russia are the exclusion of Russia from the Swift international payment system and the embargo of a number of large banks owned by the Russian state. The purpose of this faction is to prevent Russia from continuing to access all foreign currency revenue and international payment transactions in foreign currencies.

At first, Russia responded by requiring all countries importing Russian gas that were included in Russia’s list of unfriendly partners to pay for their gas imports from Russia in rubles. Russia created its own mechanism for this payment.

For the relevant client countries, this is a dangerous blow from Russia because it helps Russia to both bypass the impact of Russian sanctions while at the same time separating within the bloc of countries that are confronting Russia over the Ukraine incident. . Russia also bluntly threatened that if it did not pay in rubles, Russia would stop supplying gas.

The customer countries involved are pushed to the choice of having to accept payment in rubles or have Russia stop supplying gas. Some accept the new Russian payment mechanism while Poland and Bulgaria do not. These two countries became the first customers that Russia stopped supplying gas in recent times.

There are many more big surprises

Whether Russia violated the signed contract or not is one thing. Whether Russia has any other policy options or not is another matter. What is clear and certain is that the direct battle between Russia and the other partners in the field of gas has officially begun.

Gas has become Russia’s weapon in the fight against the US, the EU and its allies. After gas is most likely oil, coal and other materials that have long been Russia’s exports.

The medium and long-term consequences of this new war are that Russia’s rivals will stop importing energy and raw materials from Russia so as to no longer be dependent on Russia and thereby no longer have weaknesses and vulnerabilities. hurt that Russia can catch.

Russia hit Poland and Bulgaria first because these two countries are among the most fiercely anti-Russian countries and are only small client countries of Russia, which means Russia can achieve political effects through it. psychology is very high while the level of benefits and disadvantages – ie reduced income from gas supply shutdown – is not large. Russia uses this move to deter other client countries and divide the opposing faction within Russia.

Certainly, Russia has realized that the countries of the Western bloc sooner or later, quickly or gradually, all advocate to gradually reduce and come to an end to varying degrees of dependence on energy supplies from Russia. Then there will come a time when Russia does not actively stop supplying them, they also actively stop importing from Russia.

After finding an alternative source of energy imports from Russia or gaining some way to help them become self-sufficient in energy, the countries on the opposing side of Russia will take the next step, not only embargoing Russia on energy exports, but also imposing sanctions on Russia. but also sanction other partners in the world that continue to import energy from Russia.

The new war is not a fight with guns, bombs or missiles, planes or tanks, but energy and materials, but equally fierce and uncompromising with both developments and outcomes that still cause many problems. big surprise.