Russia wants to use gas power to warn Europe not to interfere in the Ukraine conflict, but Moscow has to suffer the consequences.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin appeared on the cover of the magazine Economist December 2006 with a picture of a gas pump in his hand like a gun, with the title “Don’t mess with Russia”. The target of this message is probably Europe, which is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas.
In the preface of the article, the Economist writes that “Russia’s abuse of energy power is not in the interest of the Russian people, the neighborhood and the world.”
Michael E Webber, a professor of energy at the University of Texas, USA, thinks that this is still true, when Russia recently decided to cut off gas supply for Poland and Bulgaria, making people and businesses in Bulgaria like “sitting on the fire“.
Gas is an important commodity for industries, power generation and buildings with heating systems, especially in Northern Europe, where winters are often long and harsh. This explains why European countries rely heavily on Russian energy supplies to keep their homes warm and keep their economies running.
Therefore, energy can also be turned into weapons in many forms, according to Webber. In 1967 and 1973, Arab states cut off oil supplies to the United States and Western countries, as a means of punishing these countries for supporting Israel in the Middle East conflict.
“Cutting off energy supplies is a way to inflict economic pain on opponents, causing them to make policy concessions,” the expert said.
A natural gas pipeline was built in northern Greece in September 2020. Image: AP.
Nowadays, oil embargo this may not be effective, because this is a substitute item in the global market. If a supply under a long-term contract is cut, countries can look to other suppliers, albeit at a higher price in the spot market.
More than 60% of the world’s daily oil consumption is transported by tankers. If there are any disruptions, fleets can divert and reach their new destination within weeks. Therefore, it is difficult for an oil producing country to prevent a consuming country from buying oil on the global market.
However, natural gas is transported by pipeline. Only 13% of the world’s gas supply is transported by liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers. As a result, gas becomes more of a regional or continental commodity, with buyers and sellers physically connected by pipelines.
It will be difficult for buyers to find an alternative gas supply, as laying new pipelines or building import and export storage can cost billions of dollars and take years. So any gas outage will have a rapid impact and can be long-lasting.
Europe’s dependence on Russian energy, especially gas, complicates its foreign policy. Many observers have pointed out that since Russia launched its military campaign in UkraineEurope’s heavy reliance on Russian oil and gas for decades has provided Putin with leverage and made European governments hesitant to intervene in conflicts.
“It’s no coincidence that Russia launched the campaign in February, when it was coldest and Europe’s heating demand was at its highest,” Webber commented.
Since the European gas network spans many countries, Russia’s lockdown to Poland and Bulgaria affects not only these two countries. Prices will increase as the pressure to flow gas in pipelines running through the two countries to other parts of Europe decreases. Shortages will emerge in countries at the end of the pipeline, like France and Germany.
However, observers say that with the increasing risk of Russia turning gas into a weapon of pressure, Europe will accelerate the process of getting rid of Russian energy dependence, thereby harming Moscow itself.
Webber argues that if Europeans can reduce their gas consumption quickly when winter ends and gas power plants are replaced by other sources, they can lessen the impact of the “gas blow” of the European Union. Russia. The use of imported LNG from coastal storages can also help to remedy the situation.
The European Union (EU) is working to increase energy efficiency in buildings. The block also aims to fill 90% of gas storage facilities during the low season and increase production of biomethane, a gas derived from agricultural waste or other organic sources, as well as renewable energy sources. create.
Building more import storage to receive LNG from the US, Canada and many other countries is also an option. However, further approval of a fossil fuel infrastructure project would contradict the EU’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change.
A worker at the gas compression station of the Yamal – Europe pipeline near Nesvizh, Belarus in 2006. Photo: Reuters.
Boosting wind, solar, geothermal and nuclear power plants as quickly as possible to replace gas power plants is also a key EU priority. Abandoning traditional gas heating systems, replacing it with an electric-powered heat pump, which can turn into air conditioning during Europe’s increasingly frequent summer heatwaves, is also the right solution. with the bloc’s climate goals.
Russia’s gas cuts could ultimately accelerate European nations’ efforts to switch to renewable energy and use electricity more efficiently, according to Webber.
Not only causing pain for Europeans, the move to cut off gas supplies could also seriously affect Russia’s revenue stream. President Putin is demanding that “unfriendly” countries pay for gas in rubles to increase the value of the Russian currency, which has been depreciated under the pressure of economic sanctions. Poland and Bulgaria rejected this offer.
Nikos Tsafos, an energy and geopolitics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, thinks Russia could cut off gas supplies to Europe at any time. “However, that decision will be seen by Europe as an act of war. It will unite Europeans and bring them closer to Ukraine,” Tsafos said.
Webber also said that cutting off gas supplies in February would be very expensive for Russia and would certainly cause a backlash in Europe. By using gas as a pressure tool in warmer weather, Russia is still able to flex its energy prowess without being seen as too drastic, and without losing too much revenue. .
“The key question right now is whether Europe needs Russian gas more than Moscow needs the revenue from sales to Europe,” Webber said.
Thanh Tam (According to Conversation, Bloomberg)
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