US intelligence identifies real Russian targets in Ukraine

Speaking at a hearing before the US Senate Armed Services Committee on May 10, Avril Haines, director of the US National Intelligence Service, said that Russia’s war in Ukraine is likely to become “unpredictable”. more predictable and escalatory” because of the “mismatch” between President Putin’s ambitions and Russia’s military capabilities.

According to Ms. Haines, although the forces Russia refocused on the eastern Donbass region after failing to capture the capital Kiev during the first few weeks of a military offensive against the neighboring country, but US intelligence agencies see this as “just a change of heart”. temporary change”. They say Moscow is seeking to establish control over Ukraine’s southern coast, from the Donbass in the east to the breakaway sub-region of Transnistria in Moldova in the west.

The Axios news agency quoted Haines as adding that US intelligence assessed that the Putin administration “has at least four short-term military goals”. The first is to gain full control and establish a “buffer zone” in the Donbass, where Kiev separatists have declared the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics.

The second is to surround the army Ukraine in the western Donbass “to crush Ukraine’s elite and best-equipped forces” to hold the line in the eastern region.

The third goal is to consolidate control of the road bridge established by Russia from the Donbass along Ukraine’s east coast to Crimea, which has been annexed by Russia since 2014, to allow Moscow forces to seize it. Kherson region and fresh water supplies to Crimea.

Finally, the US intelligence chief confirmed that there were “indications” that Russia wanted to expand the land bridge further to the west, in order to capture the port city of Odessa and connect with the Transnistria region, completely cutting off Ukraine’s total maritime access. Achieving this goal would be a strategic victory for Russia.

“Mr. Putin is likely to also assess that Russia has a greater ability and willingness to withstand a challenge than its adversaries. He may be looking to the United States and the European Union (EU) to decline. weak resolve as food shortages, inflation and energy prices worsen,” Haines said.

The US and its EU allies have provided military aid packages totaling billions of dollars to help Kiev fend off Russian forces, while imposing the harshest sanctions to strangle the economy. of the land of birch.

Ms. Haines said that his government Putin will most likely seek to block aid shipments from the US to Ukraine in the coming weeks. According to her, Russian officials will continue to use “nuclear statements” to prevent the West from transferring more weapons to Ukraine, but Putin “will probably only authorize the use of nuclear weapons if he accepts it.” see an existential threat to the Russian state or regime”.

“Both Russia and Ukraine believe they can continue to make progress militarily. We do not see a viable negotiating path forward, at least in the short term. We are supporting Ukraine, but we don’t want to end with World War Three and we don’t want to see a situation where either side uses nuclear weapons,” Haines noted.

Tuan Anh

Why is the Black Sea important to Russia in the war in Ukraine?Many experts believe that Russia will not be able to reinforce the naval forces that have suffered losses during the military offensive in Ukraine without greater access to the Black Sea.