Vietnam’s economic picture in 2022

At Forecast forum economy Vietnam 2022 – 2023 held on the morning of May 12, experts warned, besides the optimistic signals, the business environment will present many unpredictable challenges.

Dr. Can Van Luc – member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council – said that Vietnam’s macroeconomic picture in the period of 2022 – 2023 is greatly influenced by world developments, when the pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic has not ended and the economic and political situation has been volatile.

“The US economy is showing signs of slowing down, inflation is high, the ability to implement tight monetary policy while purchasing power is low. Meanwhile, the European economy faces the risk of recession when oil and metal prices rise due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. China’s economy is facing the risk of slowing down… All of this will affect the world in general and Vietnam in particular.“, Mr. Luc said.

In the ASEAN region, growth in the export sector showed signs of slowing down, the PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) in March 2022 was at 51.7 points, the lowest level in the past 6 months. . In particular, inflation is increasing in many parts of the world due to the sharp increase in global food and energy prices, which has had a knock-on effect on the prices of other goods and services.

“Vietnam’s economy grows 4.4%, while inflation is forecasted at 4%. But in 2022, the inflation index may reach 6 – 6.2%. This is the record inflation rate in the past 20 years“, Mr. Luc added.

However, Mr. Luc also believes that inflation in Vietnam will be curbed by the Government’s macro policies and solutions as well as the active participation of businesses.

Sharing the same view, Mr. Nguyen Bich Lam – former Director of the General Statistics Office – said that the increasing global prices caused the economies of countries to fall into a “dilemma”. In addition, the disruption of supply, high labor costs, and input materials, especially expensive gasoline, have pulled down the profit margin of enterprises due to the increase in input costs to 45- 50%.

“Vietnam’s economy has a large openness, domestic production depends heavily on imported raw materials. Vietnam’s economy has a characteristic that when the price of raw materials increases by 1%, the price of output products increases by 2.06%, which means an increase in inflation of the economy. Therefore, the risk of imported inflation is inevitable in the context that the economies that are Vietnam’s largest and most important trading partners, such as the US, EU, and South Korea… all forecast inflation. growing at a worrying rate“, analyzed Mr. Lam.

The first 4 months of the year are very prosperous

At the forum, Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment (MPI) Tran Quoc Phuong said that in the first four months of 2022, Vietnam’s economy continued to recover and showed many signs of prosperity. Specifically, GDP growth in the first quarter of 2022 is estimated at 5.03% over the same period; inflation was controlled, major financial, monetary and credit balances were secured, and state budget revenue achieved positive results.

Vietnam’s business environment index increased to 73 percentage points, up 12 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, the highest level since the 4th outbreak. The first 4 months of 2022 reached 49,591 businesses, the highest level in the first 4 months of the year so far in Vietnam.

Foreign direct investment capital in the first 4 months of 2022 is estimated at 5.92 billion USD, the highest value in the first 4 months of the year in the years 2018-2022, creating an important driving force for economic growth in 2022. .

“The Government’s decision to ease regulations to fight the epidemic and continue to recover and develop the economy has helped businesses expand investment, trust and be optimistic about the future of Vietnam’s economy.”Mr. Phuong said.

Mr. Phuong also affirmed that international organizations have made many optimistic forecasts about Vietnam’s economy. As the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts that our country’s economic growth will recover at 6.5% in 2022 and reach 6.7% in 2023; The World Bank forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth will reach 5.3% in 2022, then stabilize around 6.5%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 to 3.6% but believes that, in Vietnam, the economic recovery process will be strengthened from the implementation of the recovery program. and socioeconomic development. Vietnam GDP will grow at 6% in 2022 and 7.2% in 2023…

According to Mr. Nguyen Bich Lam, the bright spot of Vietnam’s economy in the first months of the year is labor and employment. Only in the first 4 months of the year, more than 80,000 new businesses have been established and returned, creating new jobs for millions of employees with an income of 5-15 million VND/person/month.

Also giving an optimistic assessment of Vietnam’s economy, Prof. Dr. Tran Tho Dat, a member of the Prime Minister’s economic advisory group, analyzed that over the past time, the digital economy is one of the important resources and motivations contributing to Vietnam’s economic growth. growth promoter. “If we actively apply the digital economy, Vietnam will double its growth in the coming years and escape the middle-income trap.” Mr. Dat said.