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VN-Index bottomed out at 1,200 points, what should investors expect in the coming sessions?

If the liquidity maintains or is higher than the last session of the week, the market will have a chance to recover from the support area of ​​1,240 points. However, it is still early to conclude that the market can find short-term equilibrium.

VN-Index bottomed out at 1,200 points, what should investors expect in the coming sessions?

At the end of the trading week of May 9-13, VN-Index decreased for the sixth consecutive week with a decrease of 146.49 points (11%) to 1,182.77 points, HNX-Index decreased 41.07 points (12%) down. 302.39 points.

The trading value on HoSE increased by 79.9% compared to the previous week with 84,217 billion dong, equivalent to the trading volume increased by 92.9% to 3,132 million shares. Trading value on the HNX increased by 70.7% compared to the previous week with 8,289 billion dong, equivalent to a 93% increase in trading volume to 406 million shares.

This is quite understandable when trading 5 sessions this week and last week only trading 3 sessions due to holidays.

The market dropped in 3/5 trading sessions with a very strong decrease from 4.5% to 4.8% of capitalization and recovered slightly in the remaining two sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Materials stocks had the biggest drop in the past week with 16.6% market capitalization with stocks in the steel sub-sector such as HPG (-14.1%), HSG (-18.3%), NKG (-20%)….; chemical sub-sectors such as DGC (-20.6%), DPM (-22.3%), DCM (-21.6%)…

Next is the oil and gas industry with 15.7% market capitalization with typical stocks like OIL (-12.7%), BSR (-14%), PVD (-13.6%), PVS (- 4.5%)…

Industries (-13.1%), consumer services (-11.6%), and consumer goods (-10.6%) all saw sharp declines of over 10% of market capitalization.

The market’s pillar stocks, which are banks, also dropped strongly with 12.1% of market capitalization, causing the market to lack an important pillar, such as VCB (-8.1%), CTG (- 11.5%), BID (-14.1%), VPB (-15.1%), MBB (-13.9%), TCB (-18.6%), VPB (-15.1%) , ACB (-11.3%), SHB (-17.4%)…

Notably, foreign investors were strong net buyers on the two exchanges with a net value of nearly 2,000 billion dong. In terms of net volume, FUEVFVND stock was the most net bought with 23.7 million fund certificates. Followed by CTG with 6.1 million shares and NLG with 2.6 million shares.

According to statistics of SHS Securities Company, it has been a long time, more than 10 years to be exact (the last time was at the end of 2011), the new market had a six-week decline in a row. With this decline, the VN-Index has lost more than 22% of the market capitalization, and the VN30 has also lost more than 21% of its points in the past 6 weeks.

After six consecutive weeks of decline, the market’s valuation has returned to a very attractive level with the VN-Index P/E around 13 times and VN30’s P/E more than 12 times, all of which are below average 5 times. nearest year.

If calculated according to P/E Forward for 2022, the above valuation will become even more attractive. Therefore, SHS believes that this can be considered an opportunity for long-term investors following the value investing school.

Besides, from a technical analysis point of view, VN-Index seems to be approaching the target of correction a with the theoretical first target of 1,200 points. However, if it is more negative, the VN-Index can still retreat to deeper support levels, the nearest one being 1,100 points.

It is forecasted that, in the next trading week, from May 16 to May 20, buyers and sellers will become more balanced because the market has dropped to the target area of ​​correction a. Nor does it exclude the possibility that the market will have a recovery week after six consecutive weeks of decline.

With a combination of market valuation and technical perspective, SHS believes that the area of ​​1,000-1,200 points, corresponding to a P/E VN-Index in the range of 11-13 times will be an attractive area to disburse for the vision. long-term.

According to VDSC Securities Company, the low-priced cash flow will continue to be active, especially around 1,150 points of the VN-Index, and help the market recover. Therefore, investors can expect the downtrend of the market to stop soon, and at the same time, they can consider choosing a good price to buy at large stocks with good valuation.

BSC Securities Company also believes that the threshold of 1,200 points is a hard support area of ​​the market, so it is possible that in the second session of next week, VN-Index will have a slight recovery around this level. Or else, the index will continue to drop to the next support level at 1,150.

Meanwhile, VCSC Securities Company forecasts that in the next session, the market, represented by the VN-Index, may continue to decline inertia to move towards a lower support zone at 1,130-1,150 points. At the low price zone with more attractive valuation, the buying force may continue to improve to absorb the selling momentum.

If the liquidity of HoSE remains or is higher than the level of 817 million shares at the end of the week, the market will have a chance to recover from the support and resistance zone at 1,240 points. However, even in this scenario, it is still early to conclude that the market can find short-term equilibrium.

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