What can Russia do to ‘retaliate’ Finland’s application to join NATO?

Although it remains militarily neutral, Finland has always been one of NATO’s closest allies. With the Russia-Ukraine conflict continuing and Russian President Vladimir Putin posing a major threat to global security, the President and Prime Minister of Finland have now announced that the country will submit an application to join NATO “soon” instantly”.

The decision sparked a reaction from Moscow, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warning Russia would be forced to take “retaliatory measures”.

Mr. Peskov said that NATO is looking for “additional forces” to threaten the country, and stressed that Helsinki should be “aware of the responsibilities and consequences” of joining the treaty.

“Russia will be forced to take measures to prevent threats to national security,” Peskov said.

What might these measures include?

One method of retaliation is speculated to involve Finnish gas supplies from Russia. About 60-70% of the gas used in Finland comes from Russia. On May 5, the Finnish government announced that it was prepared for the possibility that Russia would cut off gas supplies in response to its accession to NATO.

In terms of direct military action, analysts say this seems more unlikely because most of the Russian forces stationed near the Finnish border have been moved to Ukraine.

Heli Hautala, a Finnish diplomat and researcher at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, told The Associated Press that it is more likely that Moscow will move weapons systems closer to Finland.

She added that there is also the possibility that Russia will carry out campaigns to spread disinformation, cyber attacks, economic coercion and migration directions towards the Russian-Finnish border, similar to what happened. on the Polish border with Belarus last year.

There are signs that Russia has increased its focus on Finland and neighboring Sweden, with several airspace violations reported in recent weeks.

What will happen next?

Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin is expected to officially announce NATO membership on May 14. Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson is expected to do the same the next day.

Support for joining the union in Finland appears to be strong, however Sweden is not, with only 50% of the population supporting the move in national polls. Some politicians seem to support Sweden’s 200-year-old neutrality, so Stockholm’s decision remains a mystery.

However, if both countries decide to apply for membership, the legislative process will begin. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg described the process as “smooth and fast”.