Russia can send troops to the border or increase the frequency of flying aircraft close to NATO airspace if Finland and Sweden join the alliance.
With Finland and Sweden announcing they will join NATO, ending a decades-old policy of neutrality, all eyes are on Russia and how it might react to the alliance’s advance. military.
Moscow has expressed anger at the scenario of NATO continuing to expand eastwards shortly after Finland announced its intention to join the alliance last week.
Now that Finland has made its final decision, stating that it “cannot delay joining NATO”, while the ruling Social Democrats in Sweden also support the attempt to join the alliance, Moscow established express their views.
NATO flag at the Silver Arrow military exercise in Adazi, Latvia, in 2019. Photo: Reuters.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on May 16 that NATO expansion was indeed “a problem”, saying the move was in the interest of the US. He also warned that Russia will take countermeasures if NATO establishes military infrastructure in Sweden and Finland. Putin’s statement led geopolitical experts to believe that Russia can take many countermeasures when the two Nordic countries join NATO.
Aircraft to test NATO’s patience
Russia has been accused of repeatedly flying aircraft close to or infiltrating the airspace of NATO countries over the past few years. After Sweden and Finland announced their intention to join NATO, experts believe that the alliance should be prepared to face more such “test of patience” moves from Moscow.
“This changes the security environment for the entire Baltic Sea region and the Arctic,” retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, a former commander of US forces in Europe, said of Russia’s response. when Sweden and Finland joined NATO.
According to General Hodges, activities near or entering NATO airspace by Russian aircraft “will of course increase”, but he affirmed that NATO forces will overcome this challenge by “acting calmly and professionally”. . He also said that Russia will not be able to go further militarily with NATO.
“Russia doesn’t want to be involved in a war with all 30 NATO member states, which will soon increase to 32,” Hodges said. “Russian President Putin can complain and make threats, but in reality it is difficult to do more, because most of Russia’s military forces are concentrated in Ukraine.
“Therefore, I don’t see any real threat to Sweden or Finland after announcing their accession to NATO,” Hodges added.
In 2020, NATO air forces in Europe flew more than 400 sorties to intercept unidentified aircraft approaching alliance airspace, with nearly 90 percent of them being Russian military aircraft, NATO said.
Last March, NATO planes had to take off 10 times in 6 hours to monitor an “unusual increase” of Russian warplanes near the alliance’s airspace over the North Atlantic and North Sea. , Black Sea and Baltic Sea.
NATO accused the Russian military aircraft when carrying out these operations without turning on the position and altitude transmitters, not communicating flight plans, and not communicating with European air traffic controllers. could threaten the operation of civilian aircraft. Russia did not comment on this information.
Attack the network, send troops to the border
Sweden and Finland both insist their joining NATO is not a move against Russia, but both acknowledge the decision was made as a result of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine.
Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said on May 15 that this was the best thing for the country’s security, noting that Russia could respond with “cyber attacks” or “other forms of attack” such as war. information or propaganda.
Meanwhile, Sweden’s Foreign Minister Ann Linde said that during the transition period before Sweden and Finland become NATO members, tensions are likely to increase, predicting that Russia will “send more troops closer”. border”.
Energy war
Another potential area where Moscow could retaliate is in the energy sector.
Russia still holds the “trump card” in this area because it still accounts for about 40% of the gas imports of the European Union (EU). Although Europe is stepping up efforts to decouple Russian energy, it is still significantly dependent on it.
Gilles Moec, chief economist at AXA Investment Managers, warned on May 16 that Russia has the ability to “lock the gas faucet to the EU”, although he noted that Moscow is also in fact very dependent on natural resources. from energy exports to Europe.
24 hours after Finland announced its support for joining NATO, Russian state electricity company Inter RAO announced to stop exporting electricity to Finland from May 14, citing insufficient payment, despite employment. This is considered by many to be an act of retaliation.
NATO’s Seven Decades of Advancement. Graphics: Statista.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov yesterday issued a statement saying that Sweden and Finland’s attempt to join NATO was a “serious mistake that will have far-reaching consequences”.
Mr. Ryabkov added that Finland and Sweden should not be under the illusion that Russia will simply accept their decision.
“The security of Sweden, as well as Finland, will not be strengthened by this decision, it is quite clear to us,” he said. “In what form will we guarantee our security after NATO changes its size is another question. In fact, it will depend on the outcome of how Finland and Sweden join the alliance. Come on. Don’t be under the illusion that we’ll turn a blind eye to that.”
Vu Hoang (According to CNBC)
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