Is Vietnam’s inflation forecast high or low compared to other countries in the region?
Specifically, headline inflation only increased by 0.2% month-on-month, resulting in a modest 2.6% year-on-year increase, still within the market’s expectations.
Explaining this, HSBC said that the main reason is due to low transportation costs, partly due to the drop in world oil prices in April, partly due to Vietnam lowering environmental protection tax. Since April 1, the environmental protection tax rate, which accounts for the largest part of taxes and fees for fuel, has been cut to 2,000 VND for gasoline and 700 to 1,000 VND for other fuel items.
Meanwhile, food costs also fell 0.1% month-on-month, indicating stable domestic agricultural prices compared to other countries in the region that are already facing higher food prices.
According to HSBC experts, core products are the main reason. Prices have risen across the board in several key categories such as education, services and retail. Specifically, the cost of “housing and building materials” increased by 0.6% month-on-month, indicating higher utility and rental costs as workers in the province continued to return to the cities.
Is Vietnam’s inflation pressure high or low compared to other countries in the region?
According to the report, domestic demand continues to recover and world commodity prices tend to continue to increase. Therefore, HSBC forecasts Vietnam’s inflation will increase to 3.7% in 2022. Price pressure is likely to remain below the 4% inflation ceiling of the State Bank.
Regarding inflation, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) once said that the slowing global economic recovery and high world oil prices due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict will directly affect import and export activities. Vietnam’s exports and domestic oil prices, affecting inflation. Accordingly, ADB forecasts that Vietnam’s inflation will increase to 3.7% in 2022.
Besides, ADB experts analyze, the Russia-Ukraine conflict affects ASEAN countries mainly on inflation, not on growth. Specifically, inflation of the ASEAN region in 2022 is forecasted at 3.7%.
In particular, the Philippines is forecasted to have the highest inflation in the region, about 4.2%. In contrast, the two countries with the lowest inflation forecast in ASEAN are Singapore and Malaysia, with inflation forecasted at 3% in 2022. For Indonesia and Thailand, ADB experts estimate that inflation in 2022 of these two countries will reach 3.6% and 3.3%, respectively.
at Blogtuan.info – Source: cafebiz.vn – Read the original article here
