3 scenarios for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2022
Vietnam economy The year 2022 is in the process of recovering, but will continue to face many difficulties, information was given at the Vietnam Economic Annual Report 2022 conference organized by the Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR). held this morning (May 20).
As for the Vietnamese economy, VEPR estimates, the macro-economy has been relatively positive in the first half of 2021. However, the serious decline in economic growth in the third quarter of 2021 has derailed the recovery. economic recovery in 2021.
In the past year, monetary policy continued to maintain a loose state to support the economy during a prolonged difficult period, the size of support packages increased significantly compared to 2020, which is considered appropriate. appropriate and necessary.
According to VEPR, Vietnam’s economy in 2022 is in the process of recovering, but will continue to face many difficulties.
The first is the risks from the pandemic, the risk of the emergence of new strains, although recent developments indicate an improvement in global disease control.
Secondly, inflation pressure and production costs are increasing very strongly.
The third is the risk from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although the direct impacts are not too large due to the relatively small bilateral trade and investment relations between these two countries with Vietnam, the indirect effects are very large.
The fourth is the slowing down of the global economy and important partner economies of Vietnam, especially China, in the context that the country continues its “Zero COVID-19” policy with measures to prevent the spread of the virus. Strict epidemic control measures can cause stress to the economy, affect supply chains, thereby affecting Vietnam’s economy.
Fifth, the phase difference in Vietnam’s economic stimulus policy compared with the global trend can effectively reduce the impact of the economic stimulus policies that Vietnam is expecting.
Since then, VEPR has proposed 3 scenarios to forecast economic growth in 2022, the growth rate of 5.7% is the base scenario and is more likely to happen; 6.2% is the positive scenario and in the lowest scenario is 5.2%. Besides, consumer demand will recover relatively well, import and export can reach a growth rate of 13 – 14%.
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