Forecasting 3 scenarios for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2022, from 5.2

Dr. Tran Toan Thang – Head of Forecasting Department economy Industry and enterprises, National Center for Socio-economic Information and Forecasting, Ministry of Planning and Investment – said that based on the macroeconomic background of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, the research team calculated and offers three scenarios for Vietnam’s GDP growth this year.

Specifically, the base scenario is that the growth rate this year will reach 5.7%, the extreme scenario is 6.2%. However, if the context is negative, the GDP growth that VEPR forecasts will decrease to 5.2%.

“The economy is in the process of recovering but will continue to face many difficulties and obstacles“, assessed VEPR.

The basis for VEPR to make these predictions is that the world economic context is still complicated.

The first is the risks from the pandemic, the risk of the emergence of new strains, although recent developments indicate an improvement in global disease control.

Secondly, inflation pressure and production costs are increasing very strongly.

The third is the risk from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although the direct impacts are not too large due to the relatively small bilateral trade and investment relations between these two countries with Vietnam, the indirect effects are very large.

Fourth is the slowing down of the global economy and important partner economies of Vietnam, especially China, in the context that the country continues its “zero Covid” policy with control measures. Strict epidemic control can cause stress to the economy, affect supply chains, thereby affecting Vietnam’s economy.

Fifth, the phase difference in Vietnam’s economic stimulus policy compared with the global trend can effectively reduce the impact of the economic stimulus policies that Vietnam is expecting.

According to Dr. Can Van Luc – member of the National Monetary and Financial Policy Advisory Council, chief economist of the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam – this year, Vietnam’s economy faces the risk of rising inflation. double last year or more, about over 4%. The current difficult policy is to raise interest rates or not. Increasing interest rates to tighten cash flow will control inflation, but increasing interest rates will curb the overall growth of the economy because capital for businesses is tight.

In addition, Mr. Luc also pointed out some other concerns with Vietnam’s economy that the quality of growth in the past two years has been changed, labor productivity is very low, only increasing about 4-4.5 percent, low. more than many years earlier. While the financial market, the market real estate too many problems.

The global economy in 2022 could grow by 3.6%

Summarizing the global economic picture in 2021, experts from the University of Economics – VNU said that, after the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the world economy has made efforts to overcome difficulties. towel. 2021 marks the beginning of economic growth recovering, although the pace is still quite slow.

The main driver of economic growth in 2021 is consumption and trade grew stronger than expected, although consumer confidence in most countries has not yet fully recovered. Global trade has reached a record high after the disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, but it is not really even.

The main driver of economic growth in 2021 is that consumption and trade will grow stronger than expected, although consumer confidence in most countries has not yet fully recovered. Global trade has reached a record high after the disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, but it is not really even. Global foreign direct investment flows also recovered strongly, but the uneven disruption of supply chains also poses significant challenges. Real activities. Industrial output and labor market also began to expand. However, inflation began to become a global phenomenon.

Financial markets are volatile, major currencies move in different directions. Many economic support policies are implemented in countries, but the pandemic also makes the debt burden gradually increase. The global economic outlook in 2022 is 3.6% lower than initial expectations. At the same time, the global geopolitical and economic environment in 2022 is also forecasted to be more unstable, causing new difficulties for the world economy.

The Vietnam Economic Annual Report is a key product of the Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR), under the University of Economics – Vietnam National University, Hanoi, which has been continuously published for the past 14 years. The Institute’s annual reports focus on independent research and analysis, based on evidence from actual macroeconomic issues of Vietnam in the research year and forecast for the next year. In addition, the reports also highlight achievements, difficulties, opportunities and challenges in the process of economic development in Vietnam, contributing to providing a scientific basis for macroeconomic policymaking. at the same time, selectively discuss some outstanding and in-depth economic issues of Vietnam.

The Vietnam Economic Annual Report 2022 has the theme: “Enhancing the digital platform for the service industry”.