Shaken at the beginning of the year, will oil prices return to the peak?
Oil prices rose and fell unexpectedly in the first 3 months of 2022
On November 24, 2021, the global oil market plunged due to panic selling when the Omicron strain was first discovered in South Africa. WTI oil price traded on the Nymex exchange lost more than 20% of its value in just 5 days, falling from a peak of $78 to a bottom of $62. However, oil prices gradually stabilized in early 2022 because this variation is not considered to affect the global economy. Energy demand is still growing while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) is still tightening oil supplies, combined with the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical crisis when Western countries increase the ban Russian oil transport has sent official prices soaring to their highest levels since 2008, setting a 14-year high at $130 a barrel on March 8, 2022. But then, the price of oil made the world panic when it lost nearly 30% of its value in just 1 week before recovering again. The reason is temporarily determined that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) can increase oil production. These are considered the only two major oil producers that can increase spare production fairly easily. In addition, the comments that the oil demand of China – the world’s largest oil importer may decline when the country still applies the “Zero-Covid” strategy, the hopes of peaceful solutions are not expected. The average for the Russia-Ukraine war or the fact that Russian oil is attracting buyers back with very cheap discounts also has a significant impact on the market.
Price trend forecast in 2022
The event that the oil price bounces back needs more than a push from the market, it could be the economic recovery after the pandemic and the need for oil to serve production and business, or another cause with great impact. rather than the still tense relationship between Russia and Western countries, while Russia is the main supplier of oil, leading to these countries having to look for alternative sources with much more expensive prices. This invisible medium also pushed up the market price of oil.
According to many sources, oil prices will still fluctuate strongly and will soon return to the peak of 2008 when oil prices peaked at $147/barrel and this industry wave brought oil prices back again. the old peak of 2008, even higher as forecasted by big banks such as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia. Specifically, JP Morgan also forecast that oil prices could hit a record of $185 per barrel by the end of 2022 if the disruption to Russian exports lasts. Based on the prediction that Russia’s oil exports will be “shorted” by 1.6 million barrels per day due to sanctions, investment bank Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for 2022 and 2023 to 135, respectively. USD/barrel and USD 115/barrel, up from previous forecasts of USD 98/barrel and USD 105/barrel. Although this is an unlikely scenario, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has just said that the price of oil can reach 300 USD / barrel if Russian crude oil is rejected by the West. Thus, in 2022, oil prices will continue to increase sharply and may return to the old peak like 2008.
Price prediction by chart technical analysis
According to analyst Dung Phan from Sacombank’s Monetary Business Center: After reversing sharply from the peak of 130 USD on March 8, 2022, the price dropped 30% and successfully created a bottom at the area of 93 USD on March 8, 2022. on March 15, 2022 at the medium-term support level of SMA50 (50-day moving average), then rebounded to create a recovering trend. If we look more broadly from historical price cycles, we see that now the 2021-2022 period is showing signs similar to the peak of oil prices in the period 2007-2008 and if the dynamics If this is really appropriate, oil price is now starting to enter a new and expanding upward wave like 2007-2008 when it peaked at $147/barrel.
Thus, in the coming period, if the oil price stabilizes above the level of 100 USD/barrel and surpasses the level of 130 USD/barrel, it can extend the upward wave to the Fibonacci zone of 2,382 at 160-180 USD/barrel, then it may decrease stably. return.
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at Blogtuan.info – Source: cafebiz.vn – Read the original article here
