Where did the strong cash flow into securities previously come from, were the Banking and Real Estate groups attractive enough?

“Stock market: Digging sand to find gold” is one of many topics mentioned at the 2022 Investment Conference with the theme of Smart Money held by Forbes on the afternoon of May 19 in Ho Chi Minh City.

Experts give different views on the prospect of the stock market, in the context that the VN-Index has adjusted significantly in the past time…

Referring to the current stock market, Mr. La Giang Trung, General Director of Passion Investment, said that in the long term, the market always goes up, but in the short term, the market is in a downward cycle. “With the Fed raising interest rates, high inflation, and the economic cycle coming to an end, at this stage the world and Vietnam stock markets are still likely to fall further. The short-term is not too attractive to invest in. If you have a long-term strategy, you can buy it,” said Trung.

Meanwhile, Mr. Le Chi Phuc, General Director of SGI, said that it is difficult to predict the trends and periods of the macro cycle. He said he looks a lot into the internal economy, businesses and industries to give 1-year and 2-year prospects, besides variables from major institutions in the world.

“There are 2 views, half of them say that the US economy is in a hot cycle, but with the expectation that the cooling process will not lead to a recession. The decline in the financial asset channel is moderate, the stock market The global stock market could fall 15-20% Half of the people think that the tightening of the Fed makes the economy go down faster, leading to a recession. According to which school, look at the internal economy and businesses”, Mr. Phuc said.

According to Mr. Le Anh Tuan, Director of Investment Strategy, Dragon Capital, giving advice is difficult because investors differ in risk tolerance and investment style. “The most important thing is how to use capital and control emotions,” said Dragon Capital expert.

If in the period of 2021, the market liquidity is around 25,000 billion VND/session, then it is only around 15,000 billion VND/session. Where did the previously strong cash flow come from and why is it withdrawing quickly?

According to Mr. La Giang Trung, looking at GDP growth from 2018 to now, credit growth per year is around 13-15%, 2018-2019 is about 17%, although credit growth has not changed much, GDP growth is low. , ie capital flows steadily into the economy but does not increase GDP, it can be said that capital flows have partly flowed into the stock and real estate markets.

“Inflation has increased, the Fed has raised interest rates, in Vietnam, the control of macro policy is good, inflation has not shown any signs of tension, credit growth has not increased as strongly as in the past time. But locally in some areas. capital flow is not good and inefficient, so there is a reduction in capital inflows into the stock market”, Mr. Trung assessed.

According to Mr. Tuan, stocks fell about 20%, in a downtrend, the current decrease in liquidity is normal.

Mr. Phuc said that the past shows that during a hot bull market, the liquidity is always 2-3 times higher than in the low period, this happens in any economic cycle, whether tightening or easing. .

“Currently, it is a down cycle, so speculative cash flow is standing outside. The cash turnover ratio in accounts at securities companies has decreased, investors have been less active, with a cautious sentiment, causing much less liquidity. “, SGI CEO commented.

According to Mr. Phuc, the reason for investors’ caution is that bad news appeared, including rising interest rates, the Fed’s withdrawal, and the news spiral that made investors wary. However, this year, there is still the possibility that liquidity will increase again, possibly at double the current level.

Regarding the issue of reduced margin, is it a positive factor for the healthy development of the market?

Mr. Le Chi Phuc: The nature of the market is currently very large individual speculation. With 2 million newly opened accounts out of a total of 5 million accounts, F0 investors with little knowledge and experience have suffered great losses, some have left the market because there is no money left or it is not suitable. easy money.

“Many people entering the market have an expectation of double or triple their accounts after a few months, this is not reasonable, that expectation is dropped, they have to re-educate themselves with reasonable expectations. We expect 5 In the next 10 years, speculation will decrease, individual investor transactions will decrease, making room for institutional investors and long-term investments,” Phuc said.

With the recent adjustment, the valuation of the Vietnamese market is now attractive compared to the regional market as well as to the VN-Index itself.

Mr. La Giang Trung: Looking at VN30, stocks like HPG are good gainers thanks to the commodity price up cycle. The second is the banking and finance group. In recent years, profits have increased sharply in history. P/E seems cheap but is really attractive? The third group is a non-cyclical group like FPT, PNJ, and MWG. P/E is not low. Accordingly, he thinks that the current valuation is not attractive.

The stock market is considered a mirror of macroeconomics. At present, the macro-economy is stable, why did the stock market drop so sharply?

Mr. La Giang Trung: If you look at GDP in 2020, 2021 is low, but the stock market goes up a lot. Now it is time to adjust to the macro economy because the market has gone up too high.

Disagreeing, Mr. Le Anh Tuan said that the stock market and macroeconomics have little relationship with each other. Meanwhile, the stock market and monetary policy are more related. He thinks that if the economy grows by 6-7% and that the stock market must grow at a correspondingly high rate, it is not correct. “Monetary policy as well as corporate profits are important,” said Dragon Capital expert.

Giving a different perspective, Mr. Le Chi Phuc said that if only looking at the list of listed companies, it is positive about the profit picture. Through the congress season, listed companies had profit growth of over 20%, 15% higher than the 10-year average. Not stopping there, the business’s forecast plan is 3-5 years with an ambition of 20-30% growth.

“The stock market now gathers many excellent businesses with dynamic growth. But does the market represent the economy? In the past 3 years, millions of businesses have closed but no businesses have closed on the floor. The market doesn’t represent the economy?

Banking and real estate accounted for a large proportion on the floor. Recently, banking stocks fell slightly while real estate dropped sharply. What are the internal prospects of these two industries, what are the expectations for investment?

Mr. Le Anh Tuan: Real estate is an attractive and interesting industry. Regarding real estate stocks, there is a period when the valuation is not based on profits but on the assets of the business. This leads to if the P/E is not cheap, the profit has not kept up with the price. Real estate stocks have codes down 40-60% even 70% from the peak but P/E is not attractive.

Expecting cheap real estate market is difficult. This is due to a growing middle class, strong infrastructure and increased urbanization.

Regarding banks, Mr. Tuan said that at the current valuation, it is not expensive, but he has not yet entered the valuation zone to close his eyes to buy.

Speaking more about banks, Mr. Le Chi Phuc said that when COVID came, he was worried about arising bad debts, but the past time has shown a test of the management ability of banks.

“The final number of bad debt at this time is not going to be restructured, the number is not high, affirming that the bank’s management is better than before. The bank still has room to do well, although there will be a bank to go. After that, if you fall behind, there will be a division,” said Mr. Phuc.

According to Huyen Cham

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