The war in Ukraine is increasingly complicated, the US is not ready for the price to pay?

Support doesn’t last forever?

The US Senate approved $40 billion in emergency aid for Ukraine on May 19, but with a small group of Republicans criticizing its passage, as well as the war in Ukraine. Ukraine is entering a complicated new phase, where bipartisan US support for the conflict may no longer be guaranteed.

US President Joe Biden. Photo: Reuters

Avril Haines, the director of US national intelligence, warned the Senate Armed Services Committee recently that the next few months will be a period of constant upheaval. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine could take place in a “more escalation and unpredictable” direction, the US official said, adding that the risk of Russia threatening to use nuclear weapons would increase. .

Amid the costs and grave dangers of the war in Ukraine, President Biden faces questions about to what extent the United States will continue to be involved in the conflict.

In March 2022, the US and its allies had a common position: No matter how long the war lasted, Ukraine would be liberated. Ukraine deserves support, and the United States will lead NATO nations to make Russia understand that this transatlantic alliance is ready and able to thwart Moscow’s ambitions.

This goal of the West may not have changed, but it is clear that the US understands that it is not in their best interest to enter an all-out war with Russia, even if a negotiated peace agreement is desirable. Ask Ukraine to make some tough decisions.

However, as US goals and strategies in the Ukraine conflict become increasingly difficult to define, the scope of Washington’s plans is likely to continue to shift.

Now the questions for the US are: Is the US trying to help end the conflict in Ukraine by settling the situation in Ukraine and some aspect of the Russia-US relationship? Or is the US just trying to permanently weaken Russia? Or have the goals of the Biden administration shifted to weakening President Putin’s power and changing the regime in Russia? Or does the US want Russia to be responsible for the war in Ukraine? Or is the goal to avoid a broader war?…

Without clarifying the above questions, the White House not only faces losses in interests, but also risks undermining lasting peace and security in Europe. But by clarifying those questions, can the US prevent itself from avoiding a full-blown conflict with Russia?

US officials have vowed to continue supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia, but American public support for the war may not last forever. For American voters, inflation is a much bigger issue than the war in Ukraine, and disruptions to global food and energy markets could make it worse.

The war in Ukraine is complicated and unpredictable

The current situation in the Ukraine conflict has become complicated, which is perhaps why the Biden administration is hesitant to set clear goals.

The United States understands well that a military victory for Russia as well as Ukraine gaining control of all territories since 2014 is an unrealistic goal. Russia clearly still has a military advantage over Ukraine.

NLAW shoulder-fired anti-tank weapon. Photo: Reuters

The United States and its NATO allies are becoming increasingly involved in the war in Ukraine, both militarily and economically. Unrealistic expectations risk drawing them into ever greater all-out conflict with Russia.

The fact that President Biden once said “President Putin cannot take power” or US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made statements about the goal of “weakening Russia” or US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s commitment that The US will support Ukraine “until victory” may strengthen US support for Kiev but will not help the negotiation process to reach a peace agreement.

The US and NATO have shown they will support the war in Ukraine through arms shipments and other means. When the war ends, the United States and its allies will have to prepare to help Ukraine rebuild.

However, some observers say that President Biden should make it clear to President Volodymyr Zelensky that there will be limits to how far the US and NATO will go in helping Ukraine deal with Russia in all aspects. specific aspects such as the supply of weapons, money and political support.