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Analysts surprised by the advance of Russian troops in eastern Ukraine

Analysts were surprised by the advance of Russian troops in eastern Ukraine - Photo 1.

Russia is tightening the noose on Ukraine’s military in the east of the country, experts say. Russian forces including artillery are carrying out a fierce ground assault and now they are close to besieging the last two holding cities in Luhansk province. Luhansk and the vicinity of Donetsk form the Donbas region, which has become the main focus of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

In recent days, Russian forces have used heavy artillery, air strikes and infantry to close in on the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, said the Institute for the Study of War, a military think-tank in the US, said in the most recent update on the situation.

A US defense official said on Thursday that Russian troops have occupied much of northeastern Severodonetsk and are trying to overwhelm Ukrainian forces in the area to Lysychansk.

“The Russians are trying to get rid of Ukrainian forces that are basically deployed from Severodonetsk to the north of Popasna,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Popasna is about 30 miles south of Severodonetsk. Ukrainian troops withdrew from the strategic town this month to fortify elsewhere.

The Russian military is trying to encircle the Ukrainian army in the area, and the fact that Russia has made significant strides, is a far cry from its tactics since February, the official said. If Russia succeeds in besieging the two cities located on either side of the strategic Siversky Donetsk River, they will be completely cut off from the territory controlled by Ukraine. Ukrainian troops have retreated from surrounding towns and villages in recent days.

Michael Kofman, research program director for the Russian Studies Program at CNA, a Washington-area think tank, said on Twitter that “recent Russian interests have somewhat shaped the outcome.” next time”.

He said that while the overall balance of power of the conflict still lies with Ukraine and its Western allies, “the local balance in Donbass during this period is a different story”.

He also added that this Russian advance in Donbass can be considered a “salvation” for President Putin after 3 months of war in Ukraine without a breakthrough. Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said Ukraine’s defense forces were struggling to fend off a Russian onslaught.

He said in an interview with an independent Russian media that: “Now we have lost to the Russian army in terms of speed. The Russian side gathered its reserves before we did. We are falling behind, which makes the situation ahead extremely difficult.”

Luhansk regional governor Serhiy Haidai said Russia shelled the highway connecting the two cities with neighboring Donetsk province, damaging a key route through which Ukraine was sending reinforcements and supplies.

A Russian military unit approached the Lysychansk-Bakhmut highway on Wednesday, “but they were quickly dislodged,” Haidai said on Telegram.

Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitical and security analyst who heads the intelligence department of the consulting firm Le Beck International, said the situation of Ukrainian troops in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk was “very dire.” .

“They are on the verge of being surrounded. There are basically two roads leading to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, and one of them is about to be cut off,” he said.

Meanwhile, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that Russia is engaged in intense fighting with Ukrainian forces in the neighboring Donetsk region. “The fighting has reached its maximum intensity so far,” Maliar said.

Analysts were surprised by the advance of Russian troops in eastern Ukraine - Photo 2.

After months of defeat on the battlefield and a devastating siege of the Black Sea port city of Mariupol, Russia’s advance in Luhansk has raised concerns about the outcome of the conflict.

If Russia can secure control of a large part of the east, should Ukraine accept that as the cost of survival?

Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger hinted at exactly that at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland this week when he called for the resumption of peace talks between Moscow and Kiev, warning that the Isolating Russia diplomatically would have lasting consequences for European stability.

Ukrainian President Zelensky strongly criticized Kissinger’s statements: “It seems that Kissinger’s thinking is not 2022 but 1938 and he thinks he is speaking to an audience that is not in Davos, but in Munich at the time”.

However, Zelensky acknowledged that Ukraine’s positions in Luhansk were vulnerable, warning that “in some areas, the opponent is fundamentally superior in terms of equipment and number of troops. “.

However, experts warn that pouring Ukrainian defense troops into the area may not be the solution.

Le Beck expert Horowitz said: “Ukraine in general has a lot of difficulty in terms of reinforcements that they can send because they are in a state of war. But in this particular region, they have to decide. see if they want to defend the area to the end against the risk of possibly losing the units they’re sending in, or are they really just pulling back to more defensible positions.”

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