Armed conflict, drought, production shortages, unprecedented low inventories and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic – these are the reasons that “squeeze” energy markets globally in the past year. , and customers agonized with escalating bills. It is likely that the situation will get worse once summer arrives.
From Asia to Europe
This time it was due to the high temperature. Currently, many regions in South Asia have been extremely hot, the focus is on cutting electricity are falling into South and Southeast Asia, such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar… have to cut off electricity nationwide, affecting 300 million people. In India alone, about 16 of the 28 states – home to more than 700 million people – are grappling with blackouts of between two and 10 hours a day this month.
In response, the Indian government recently directed to increase foreign coal purchases despite the expensive price, and at the same time reversed environmental policies to expand coal mining.
However, it is difficult to say how much effect these measures will have. The coming rainy season may reduce the need for electricity in India, but there is a risk of flooding the mines. In China, fearing a recurrence of widespread power shortages like last year, authorities have stepped up coal mining to reach record output.
Even so, China’s energy industry soon warned that this summer would still be stressful for heavy industry regions in the south, far from domestic energy hubs and dependent on coal and gas. import.
Governments in many parts of Japan are equally worried, especially after a severe power shortage in March. A cold spell at that time caused a sharp increase in electricity demand, while just a few days ago, an earthquake caused many coal and gas plants to shut down.
In the face of not-so-bright forecasts, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government has launched an energy-saving campaign, including urging people to reduce TV viewing.
In the US, the organization that operates the independent Midcontinent system (MISO), which provides electricity to about 42 million people, said at least 12 states – from California to the Great Lakes region – will face power shortages this summer.
Hydropower capacity has been seriously affected by a prolonged severe drought, the most populous state of California in the US is at risk of power shortages for a few more summers. Texas is worried about infrastructure again, after a winter storm in February 2021 sent millions of people into darkness for days. Just earlier this month, six Texas power plants experienced problems again.
Risk of humanitarian crisis
“Conflict and sanctions disrupting supply and demand, plus extreme weather and the post-Covid-19 economic recovery sent demand for electricity skyrocketing. The combination of too many factors like this one. It’s truly unique,” said Shantanu Jaiswal, an analyst at BloombergNEF, the news agency’s research arm. Bloombergemphasize.
Without electricity, illnesses and deaths from extreme heat tend to increase while tens of thousands of people do not have clean water to use. Prolonged power outages also mean businesses cannot operate and the economy suffers a huge shock.
In 2014, India estimated 5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) “evaporated” under the power shortages and if the blackouts were more widespread and persisted throughout the year, India could have lost nearly 100 percent of its GDP. billion USD. Escalating electricity bills will fuel inflation.
When plants on the Texas grid went down this month, wholesale electricity prices in Houston, the state briefly jumped above the $5,000/MWh ceiling price, 22 times the average high cost. electricity point of use.
The damage doesn’t stop there. This year’s power shortages could trigger a food and energy humanitarian crisis on a scale not seen in decades, said Henning Gloystein, a consultant at the Eurasia Group, a consultancy.
The problem is that energy stressors don’t appear to be going away anytime soon. Climate change will make extreme heat more common. Meanwhile, the limited investment in fossil fuels in recent years combined with strong demand, especially in emerging markets in Asia, will make the energy market more stifling for a few more years – According to Alex Whitworth, a researcher at consulting firm Wood Mackenzie Ltd.
Power grids in all places will put more pressure while waiting for wind and solar energy to gradually increase in the energy structure of the next decade.
Of course, the transition to renewable energy is a key requirement in the fight against climate change. The more coal we burn to make up for the energy shortfall, the more we pay the price in a vicious cycle of increased emissions, causing more heatwaves and back putting pressure on the grid.
“I’ve never seen it in my life”
South Africa is likely to experience a record year of… power cuts. Meanwhile, Europe could also experience what Fabian Ronningen, electricity market analyst at research firm Rystad Energy, describes as “unprecedented for European consumers”.
The risk of power outages in Europe is assessed to be quite low because the number of people using air conditioners at home is less than elsewhere and the “old continent” is racing to pump up its gas reserves.
However, low is not absent. Norway is experiencing a dry spring, limiting the supply of hydroelectricity while the region’s largest nuclear power producer, Electricite de France SA (France), has just announced a target production cut. for the third time this year.
Once Russia closes the gas valve to Europe, alternating power cuts will occur in some countries, especially in Eastern European countries that depend a lot on Russian gas such as Greece, Latvia, Hungary… – according to Mr. Fabian Ronningen.
at Blogtuan.info – Source: Soha.vn – Read the original article here
