Stocks next week: The market entered the recovery wave?
firstMarket Vietnam’s stocks recovered for the second week in a row, showing that this rally of the market is quite strong and reliable, the trading volume is still low, but has improved along with the market’s uptrend, which is also a signal. positive support strengthens the uptrend.
However, with the VN-Index approaching the psychological resistance level of 1,300 points and after 2 consecutive gaining weeks, it is likely that the market will face the possibility of a correction, the correction, if any, is not necessarily negative. positive, but it will create an opportunity for the market to accumulate before having more positive moves. This is the opinion of an expert from Saigon – Hanoi Securities Joint Stock Company (SHS).
P/E lower than last 5 years average
1Vietnam’s stock market recovered for the second week in a row, showing that this rally of the market is quite strong. (Illustration image – Photo: Investment Newspaper)
According to SHS from a technical analysis point of view, there is support for the market’s recovering trend, with the VN-Index bouncing off the psychological resistance level of 1,200 points last week to confirm the results. end the correcting wave and move into a recovering wave with the nearest theoretical target around 1,300 points.
However, if the market weakens again and VN-Index cannot hold the threshold of 1,200 points, the market will once again return to the correcting wave, but the possibility of the market weakening again like this in the opinion of investors. SHS is not high.
Although the market has recovered strongly, the market valuation is still quite attractive for long-term investors with the P/E (the ratio of stock price to earnings per share) of VN-Index and VN30. around 14 times, lower than the average of the last 5 years.
With the recovery of the economy after the pandemic and the business results of listed companies also showing an impressive profit growth rate in the first quarter, the current stock price level is still open to many people. long term investment opportunity. However, investors can wait for the opportunity to disburse in the corrections of the market, SHS recommended.
Regarding trading movements, at the end of the trading week (from May 23 to 27), VN-Index increased by 44.74 points to 1,285.45 points, HNX-Index increased by 4.15 points to 311.17 points. Trading value on HOSE increased by 7.7% from the previous week to VND73,179 billion, equivalent to a trading volume that increased by 5.6% to 2,890 million shares. Trading value on the HNX increased by 3.8% compared to the previous week, with 8,837 billion dong, equivalent to a 2.8% increase in trading volume to 405 million shares.
The market fell in the first session of the week, but recovered in the following 4 sessions, helping the VN-Index to close near the highest level.
Information technology stocks gained the most in the past week with 12.8% of market capitalization, thanks to the strong momentum of the group’s pillars, FPT up 14.7%, CMG up 3.9%…
Followed by the consumer service industry with a 6% increase in market capitalization, due to the strong breakthrough of retail stocks such as MWG up 9.5%, PNJ up 15.4%…
Followed by oil and gas stocks with an increase of 5.3% in market capitalization. Typical stocks such as: PVD up 9.7%, PLX up 5.2%, OIL up 3.6%, PVS up 2.5%, BSR up 2.1%…
The industry also increased positively with 4.8% of market capitalization. The typical stock in this group is REE, which gained 17.6% and continued to surpass all-time highs, ending the week at 89,600 VND/share. Next is GVR with 7.6% increase.
Consumer goods stocks rose 4.7% in market capitalization. Stocks VNM gained 7.2%, MSN gained 2%… The rest of the industry groups had an increase, such as community utilities 3.8% of market capitalization; finance increased by 2.5%; banks increased by 3.5%; raw materials increased by 0.8%, pharmaceutical and medical products increased by 3.2%.
Foreign investors were net sellers on the two exchanges with a value of about 348 billion dong, equivalent to a net selling volume of 10.55 million shares. In terms of net volume, HPG was sold the most with 9.5 million shares. Followed by VND with 9.5 million shares and SSI with 8.8 million shares. On the other side, FUEVFVND was the stock that was bought the most with 16 million fund certificates.
In the derivatives market, VN30 futures contracts are 11-18 points lower than the base index, showing that traders are still leaning towards the possibility that the market may soon correct again, SHS said.
According to Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam), the recovery of the week helped the index get out of the medium- and long-term downtrend, these two trends changed from down to sideways, while the downtrend changed. The short-term direction is more positive when going up. The current remarkable resistance level of VN-Index is 1,300 – 1,315 points, while the support level is 1,250 points.
According to MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS), the market recovered for 2 consecutive weeks after a series of 6 consecutive weeks of decline, the recovery span of 7/9 sessions since the bottom has strengthened the ability to create a short-term bottom and has stimulate cash flow back to catch the bottom.
The liquidity is gradually increasing, showing the need to take profit but also a signal that the cash flow has confidently re-entered the market. Technical indicators are becoming positive so investors can expect the market to return to the range of 1,297 – 1,315 points next week.
World stocks – Light at the end of the tunnel
Vietnam’s stock market recovered strongly in the past week, which is quite similar to the world stock market.
For example, US stocks rallied strongly at the end of the session on May 27 with all three major indexes advancing more than 6% in the past week, after the country’s inflation index in April recorded the smallest increase in a year. within a year and a half.
Accordingly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.8% to 33,212.96 points. This move helped Dow Jones have the longest gaining streak since December 2021 to now.
The S&P 500 also gained 2.5% to 4,158.24 points, while the Nasdaq Composite added 3.3% to 12,131.13.
Friday’s gains extended a rally that began on Wednesday, reversing a stock market slump that has seen most of the year related to Federal Reserve policy moves. United States (FED). The central bank has shown aggressive monetary policy tightening moves in response to inflation.
However, Friday’s data from the Commerce Department showed that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – an inflation gauge that is particularly focused on by the Fed – rose only 0.2% in April. smallest monthly increase in a year and a half, largely due to falling gas prices.
Core PCE growth (excluding volatile food and energy prices) also fell from 5.2% in March to 4.9% in April from a year earlier. This is also the second consecutive “cooling down” month of this index. The last time core PCE fell in a row was during the first few months of the pandemic starting in early 2020.
The new data support the argument that the US economy has been or is going through a period of “peak inflation”, with consumer prices expected to be less likely to worsen in the coming months.
The market is gradually loosening up as they see the “light at the end of the tunnel” related to inflation, said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer of financial consulting firm Exencial Wealth Advisors.
In general, the US stock market had a brilliant week with four gaining sessions and only one dropping session.
With a fairly strong gain on May 27, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 6.2% in the past week, breaking an eight-week losing streak and also the longest losing streak since 1932. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes also ended a 7-week losing streak in a row when recording weekly increases of 6.6% and 6.8%, respectively. The Dow and S&P 500 both posted their biggest percentage weekly gains since November 2020.
Observers say the stock market is likely to maintain momentum from this latest rally into next week, as investors review a slew of key reports to be released next week. Of these, the May jobs report released on Friday (June 3) is the most important. Other notable figures include the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) report on manufacturing activity, monthly vehicle sales and the Fed’s Beige Report – all due out Wednesday ( 1/6).
Still, analysts remain wary of the possibility that Wall Street’s erratic volatility may merely ease for the moment.
According to Mr. Yung-Yu Ma, director of investment strategy at financial consulting firm BMO Wealth Management, pessimism is deeply rooted in traders’ psychology. To the point where the market will react very positively to even simple news that shows a steady steady rise.
The expert cautions that it is too early to be certain that the period of volatility is over. He still believes that the market will continue to fluctuate in the coming period.
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at Blogtuan.info – Source: vtv.vn – Read the original article here
