Pay in, punish out

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban bluntly stated that he did not agree to put this item on the agenda of the summit because Hungary remained steadfast in its position that it would veto if Hungary’s conditions were not previously met by the EU. .

The embargo on Russia’s oil exports is at the heart of the sixth package of policy measures that the EU wants to adopt to punish Russia and support Ukraine. Without quickly approving this new package of sanctions or passing but without the same sanctions on Russia’s oil exports, the EU’s increase in the level of sanctions against Russia this time is only nominal but light in weight. actually.

In early May, when announcing the EU’s intention to impose an embargo on Russia’s oil exports, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed confidence that the EU’s internal consensus was completely on this policy. Now, a few EU members, led by Hungary, disagree.

They have their reasons. They depend to a very high degree on oil imports from Russia, so they don’t want to, or go along with the EU, they can’t immediately stop importing oil from Russia. They are not willing to sacrifice their own practical interests to join the EU in punishing Russia and supporting Ukraine. Their condition is that the EU gives them a longer transition period than the EU’s general intention (6 months) and requires the EU to provide sufficient financial support for them to transform their energy structure to ensure energy security. volume when stopping the import of Russian oil. Because of its determination to punish Russia to support Ukraine, the EU has been held hostage by some members for their energy policy and for their relationship with Russia.

The price the EU currently has to pay for the intention to embargo Russia on oil exports is really very expensive. The first is the matter of “undressing for the viewer’s back”. Internally, the EU and NATO are not really united as the EU and NATO are always assertive in terms of dealing with Russia and supporting Ukraine. As long as this situation persists, there is still room for Russia to gain, and the practical effectiveness of EU policy measures to punish Russia and support Ukraine remains limited.

The financial cost is also very high for the EU. Once Hungary succeeds in placing a precondition on the EU in this, then there will be other EU members following suit. The precedent will soon become the norm within the EU. Where does the EU get the financial resources to meet the financial conditions of these members? The longer the period of exception for them, the less quickly the EU cannot completely deplete Russia’s income from oil exports to the EU market.

In addition, the embargo on Russia’s oil exports also has a direct consequence that the oil refining and petrochemical industry in the EU, which has traditionally used Russian oil, has to spend a lot of money to convert technology. Switching to using oil from other sources takes time to change technology and directly affects the jobs of many people.

At this high-level meeting, the EU will decide on a number of new policy measures to punish Russia and support Ukraine. The embargo on Russia’s oil exports is unlikely to be passed because the EU has not yet met Hungary’s preconditions, and because other members of the EU do not have a consensus on how to concede Hungary. .

Since the EU has determined to punish Russia and support Ukraine at all costs, then the EU will pay any price to Hungary and a few other members in exchange for their consensus for the policy of embargo against Russia on oil exports, later embargoed the import of products from Russia’s oil, gas and coal.